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There are many factors that increase the cost of chemical production this year. First of all, the prices of upstream energy and raw materials have increased tremendously. After the international crude oil price broke 100 on January 3, the intraday and closing prices on February 20 both exceeded 100, setting another record high. The domestic coal supply continued to be tight. During the Spring Festival, the traditional coal was used in the off-season. However, this year, there was a rare coal shortage, and the coal prices naturally rose. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex-factory price of crude oil in January rose by 29.9% year-on-year, while that of raw coal rose by 14.9%. Second, the investment in environmental protection has increased. Chemicals are one of the major polluters. This year, the environmental protection department will carry out compulsory cleaner production audits, and the chemical industry has taken the lead. In addition, the increase in labor prices and the increase in transportation prices after the implementation of the new labor contract law also drastically increased production costs.
However, it is very difficult to transfer to the downstream after the increase in chemical production costs this year. The first is the policy level restrictions. In January this year, the overall level of consumer prices rose by 7.1% year-on-year, the highest in 11 years. The price intervention measures adopted by the state to prevent prices from being structurally increased to obvious inflation will only strengthen but not relax. The National Development and Reform Commission specially held price reminders for the two industries of nitrogen fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers, and the road for increasing prices of agrochemicals was blocked.
Second, the rising prices of fuel power and other raw materials are more rigid, which has inhibited the rise in prices of chemical raw materials. On February 22, Baosteel’s 2008 iron ore price negotiations have already resulted, and Asian prices have increased by 65%. The digestion capacity of downstream enterprises is limited, and the strong rise of power and ferrous metal raw materials will inevitably weaken the ability of downstream processing companies to withstand the rise in chemical raw materials.
Third, the pattern of market demand for some chemical products has changed. Since chemical investment in fixed assets has been rapidly growing at a rate of 30% or more for five consecutive years, a number of large projects have been launched. Some of the projects have already been put into production or are about to be put into production. Some of the products that originally required a large amount of imports to make up for deficiencies, such as methanol, benzene, Aniline, etc., are now balanced in the country and have even been self-sufficient, so the price is naturally difficult to go up. It is also worth noting that, currently, sulfur, sulfuric acid, butadiene rubber and other products with a large increase in chemical products are basically downstream users within the chemical industry.
In the face of the current market situation, chemical companies must have a clear understanding of the need to look more internally, through structural adjustment, technological progress, management innovation, and strive to reduce raw materials, power consumption, efforts to reduce production costs, in order to prevent economic growth From overheating to overheating and preventing price from structural upswing to obvious inflation, we must do our part.
Recently, the overall chemical market is not booming. Except for a small number of products such as sulphuric acid, glyphosate, butadiene rubber, and soda ash, prices of most chemical products have remained dull and have even declined. Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the prices of industrial products in January. The ex-factory price of industrial products rose by 6.1% year-on-year, and the purchase price of raw materials, fuel, and power rose by 8.9%. In terms of classification, two of the three chemical products (polystyrene, polyester filaments) decreased year-on-year, and one (cis-butadiene rubber) increased year-on-year; among the purchase prices of raw materials, fuels, and power, the chemical raw materials increased. It was 3.8% with the smallest increase. The chemical market is facing a severe situation in which cost pressures have soared and the cost of downward shifts has become enormous.