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The general increase in synthetic rubber was mainly driven by the following reasons:
First, the raw material styrene market as a whole fluctuates, mainly affected by the explosion of Formosa Plastics Six-Light Chemical Plant and the increase in domestic pure benzene prices. External disk market is expected to tighten the tight supply of styrene, the market performance is active, international prices have been rising all the way; the domestic styrene market atmosphere gradually warms up, the merchants reluctant to sell very price mentality to strengthen, the Jiangsu market once exceeded 8,500 yuan / ton mark. This time the market has a certain pulling action for synthetic rubber.
The second is that the raw material butadiene has slowed down, and some manufacturers recently plan to stop and overhaul. The Panjin Ethylene plant is still under maintenance. It is expected that maintenance will be maintained until around August 10; Yangzi Petrochemical's 220,000 tons/year plant will be scheduled for maintenance on August 10 for approximately one month; the Tianjin Bluestar plant will stop for some time. Unknown reboot time. According to another source, the mutual supply of butadiene to Dushanzi Petrochemical in August will increase, and its volume of goods will be reduced to about 1,000 tons, which will ease the situation of oversupply in the market to some extent. Coupled with the upward performance of Korean butadiene outer disk prices, the decline in butadiene prices has been limited, supporting the synthetic rubber market.
Third, the strong price of synthetic rubber outer disk also contributed to the upswing in the domestic market. At present, in the synthetic rubber, the prices of various products such as styrene butadiene rubber grade 1502 products and Gaoshun butadiene rubber are all lower than those of the external disks, making it more attractive for traders to purchase domestic products.
Fourth, the price of natural rubber has risen sharply under the influence of the US stock market. At present, Thailand's rubber tapping has been interrupted again due to rainfall and its supply has tightened. Inventories in Japan and China have been at low levels, and there is a need for additional stocks, both of which are the driving forces behind the rise in natural rubber prices in the international market. In this case, companies are more inclined to use synthetic rubber, which to a certain extent supports the rise in the price of synthetic rubber.
However, the fundamental factor in market price changes is demand. This time, the rising momentum of synthetic rubber is insufficient, the foundation is not strong, and the buyer’s speculation is high. Under the influence of many downstream factors such as weak downstream demand and many wait-and-see attitudes of merchants, the higher trend will return to the fundamentals, so the price rises. Hard to last.
For all major varieties, butadiene rubber is mainly used for tire production. Although the export situation of China's tire market was relatively good in the first half of the year, the operating rate of its tires companies relying on exports was relatively high, but the operating rate of enterprises relying on domestic sales was relatively low, which was only maintained at 50% to 60%, and even some of them had been discontinued. At present, the restocking of the global market is nearing completion, and the shipment speed of the tire market has slowed down significantly, which is plagued by high inventory pressure. Therefore, the price war will soon kick off. Passive production cuts at tire factories will gradually start, so businesses are vulnerable to the price hike of raw material butadiene rubber.
The overall operating rate of the SBS downstream enterprises is currently maintained at 60%. There is no obvious increase in the demand for raw materials, and the high social inventory is a barrier to the development of the SBS market. Although the signs of a rebound in raw material prices have played a role in promoting market sentiment, the long-term gains are not obvious.
The overall market for styrene-butadiene rubber is now in a turbulent uptrend, but at the same time, some players remain restrained on the uptrend, thinking that excessive speculation in the middle may end the butadiene styrene rubber rally early. Therefore, the purchase intention is not strong, and it is ready to lighten up.
To sum up, the industry is concerned that the rising market caused by the overheated market during the off-season is not sustainable, and the downstream companies have no intention of purchasing. Therefore, they may wait and see, or they are ready to lighten up. In the case of positive bearishness, business operations are characterized by confusion. Before demand has risen, the rise in prices this time is estimated to last until early and mid-August, and it is difficult to get out of the longer-term upward trend.
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The domestic synthetic rubber market, which has been declining in price, has started to reverse its upward trend since late July. Comprehensive raw material prices stabilized, strong external disk market and other favorable factors, as well as downstream factors such as continued sluggish demand, the bearish factors, in the long and short game, the market outlook is confusing, this time the rise or short-lived.