The growth rate of caustic soda production exceeded the planned target by 11%, the production growth rate of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) exceeded the planned target by 5 percentage points, and the production capacity of 4.74 million tons of diaphragm caustic soda only eliminated 300,000 tons. This is the year when the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” started, and the Chinese chlor-alkali industry handed in the answer sheet. Under the background that the operating rate is not high year after year, the chlor-alkali industry has demonstrated that it is difficult to curb the expansion of one side and quit the struggling scene. Accidental formation of profitable alkali-supplemented chlorine profit model is even more equilibrating with chlor-alkali. Li Jun, chairman of the China Chlor-Alkali Industry Association and chairman of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. frankly stated in the 13th China Chlor-Alkali Forum organized by the China Chlor-Alkali Industry Association last week: "The 12th Five-Year Plan structure adjustment pressure of the chlor-alkali industry has increased. The bigger it is."

Excessive exit from one side while expanding

The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” of China's chlor-alkali industry proposes that the output of caustic soda by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” should be controlled at 28 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7%; PVC production should be 15 million tons with an average annual growth rate of 8%. However, recent statistics show that from January to September of this year, caustic soda production reached 18.61 million tons, and the annual output is expected to reach 24.8 million tons, an increase of nearly 18% year-on-year, exceeding the planned growth index by 11%; PVC production reached 9.54 million tons. The annual PVC production is expected to reach 12.7 million tons, an increase of nearly 13% year-on-year, exceeding the planned target by 5 percentage points.

According to reports, as of the first half of 2011, total PVC production capacity has reached 21.615 million tons. The expansion of PVC production is mainly based on the abundant calcium carbide resources in the central and western regions. The PVC production capacity of the ethylene process is relatively stable, and the new production capacity has not been greatly improved in terms of technology. At present, the PVC production capacity in the Midwest is 9.16 million tons, accounting for 45% of the country's total production capacity, which is an increase of 2% from last year. In terms of caustic soda, driven by the continuous increase in profitability of its products in the first half of this year, the production of caustic soda plant has been significantly accelerated since March this year. As of October, China's new caustic soda production capacity was about 3.5 million tons, with a total capacity of more than 33.7 million tons.

On the one hand, there is more energy expansion, and on the other hand, the backward production capacity is out of step. The "Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2011)" stipulates that by the end of 2015 all caustic soda production facilities will be phased out. In 2010, the capacity of the diaphragm caustic soda production capacity was 4.74 million tons. In the first half of 2011, it only withdrew 300,000 tons, accounting for 6%, and there were 4.44 million tons of production capacity that must be eliminated before the end of 2015. It can be seen that the pressure in the last four years is large.

Overcapacity also led to a low operating rate in the chlor-alkali industry. The data show that PVC continuous operating rate of 40% for 4 consecutive years, this year is expected to be about 55%; caustic soda operating rate of 40% for 4 consecutive years.

The entire industry is irrational and unfriendly

According to Li Jun’s introduction, the formation of a fragmentation and regional protection in history has resulted in a large number of small and medium chlor-alkali enterprises in China. As of the end of 2010, China produced 176 caustic soda production enterprises. The average production capacity of individual enterprises was only 176,000 tons/year, and 160 enterprises with production capacity less than 300,000 tons accounted for 54% of the total production capacity. In the production of 94 PVC manufacturers, the industry concentration is low. To this end, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” of the chlor-alkali industry aims to raise the industrial concentration target as one of the goals. The "Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2011)" also clearly stipulates that restrictions should be imposed on the production of new caustic soda production plants, acetylene-based polyvinyl chloride (PVC) production plants and ethylene oxide chlorination PVC production plants with an initial scale of less than 300,000 tons/year. Construction.

Li Jun said: "Unfortunately, the policy has been greatly reduced in implementation. Not only has new construction projects been started, but even more puzzling is that there are small-scale plants with annual capacity below 100,000 tons, which is totally inconsistent with the national industrial policy. He said: "The development of the chlor-alkali industry is not lacking in policy orientation. What is missing is effective monitoring in policy implementation. If individual project analysis seems to be reasonable, it cannot be overlooked that the entire industry itself is already in In the irrational period, there is a serious lack of awareness of the current implementation of policies."

Original chlorinated base is now supplemented with alkali

Since the beginning of this year, the market price of caustic soda in China has reached a record high due to factors such as stable downstream demand, limited regional electricity restrictions, Japan’s earthquake, and rising export volume and price. In contrast, there is no bright spot for downstream demand for PVC. The operating rate of the caustic soda plant continuously increased with the increase in the price of caustic soda. The supply of liquid chlorine was abundant and the demand was weak. The market price fell sharply. Li Jun said: "This year, the price of caustic soda has climbed to a record high, and the profit model for the use of alkali to supplement chlorine has highlighted the traditional chlor-alkali balance in the chlor-alkali industry. It has once again become the focus of attention in the industry. The structural adjustment tasks facing the chlor-alkali industry are even more severe." Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical He Gang, the general manager of the company, also said with emotion: “It is normal that the boom of PVC is not high, and high caustic soda is not normal. The whole industry originally used chlorinated alkali, but now it uses alkali to subsidize chlorine. This market is also normal. ?"

It is understood that the balance between chlorine and alkali is the key to the development of the chlor-alkali industry. In the 1980s, China set chlorine as an alkali, and chlorine was usually used as a by-product of the production of caustic soda. In the 1990s, due to the increasingly widespread application of chlorine products, the chlor-alkali industry gradually developed chlorotriazine, and caustic soda was gradually referred to by some people in the industry as a by-product.

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