China's Auto Fuel Limit New Deal Survey

In December 2010, China will issue a new version of the "China Passenger Car Fuel Consumption Limit" (hereinafter referred to as the "limit value"), a mandatory national standard for vehicle fuel consumption. It is expected to commence in 2011 at the earliest, and it is currently determined that 2012 will be the lead-in period, and that it will be officially implemented by 2015, with a relatively loose time. It is understood that the fuel consumption limit of the new standard is expected to decrease by 20% compared to the second phase of the standard implemented in 2008. It is intended that by 2015, the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles in China will fall to about 7L/100km. The carbon dioxide emission standard is As low as 167g/km.

As early as July 1, 2005, China began to implement this system. Since its implementation, it has, to a certain extent, urged vehicle manufacturers to actively invest in and develop related technologies such as energy conservation and emission reduction under the established standards and promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain.

In the face of the more stringent fuel consumption limit Phase III standard (hereinafter referred to as the "new standard") to be implemented, the newspaper Automotive Research Institute and Gasgoo.com conducted an industry survey. The survey was conducted from November 16 to November 22, 2010.

A total of 1,749 industry participants voted during the survey. More than half of people in the industry who participated in the vote believed that the impact on the entire automobile industry in China would not be too great. On the one hand, it is because the new standard will adopt gradual progress and give enterprises sufficient preparation time. Second, after the standard adaptation period of the first two phases, the vast majority of enterprises have already started to implement the implementation of follow-up standards in advance. The technical reserves are relatively Ample.

The statistics of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center show that the fuel consumption limit of passenger cars has been implemented since 2005. By the end of 2006, the accumulated gasoline savings will reach 1.18 million tons, and the direct economic benefits will be more than 7 billion yuan. yuan. At the same time, the average fuel consumption of new vehicles in the country in 2006 has also dropped from 9.11L/100km in 2002 to 8.06L/100km, with an average decline of 11.5%.

The first phase of the "Limited Value" standard, as a starting point, has a low requirement, and there is no difficulty in achieving compliance for most vehicle models. Only about 10% of the models did not reach the first stage of the limit standard, and most of them have long been discontinued. Therefore, by the introduction of the second phase of the “Limited Value” standard, the fuel consumption standard of passenger vehicles will be substantially improved. It is understood that the setting of the second-stage standard is based on the world average level in 2002, which is roughly reduced by about 10% compared with the first stage, making the average fuel consumption of new vehicles in the country drop below 8L/100km, as far as indicators are concerned. Not low. According to the data provided by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, after the implementation of the first and second stages of the fuel consumption limit standard, a total of more than 800 vehicles that did not meet the limit standard were abolished in 2009.

The upcoming new standards will require a further 20% reduction on the basis of the second phase, clearly demonstrating the government's first-stringent and strict strategy on the automobile fuel consumption limit policy. According to sources, the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles in the country will be controlled at around 5L/100km by 2020, and will gradually be in line with international standards.

The reason why this new standard has attracted the attention of the industry is that, apart from the fact that the reduction rate is almost doubled from the second stage, the difference between the new standard and the first two stages of the standard setting is that the single model is the target. The new standard introduces the concepts of "average fuel consumption of enterprises" and "target value of average fuel consumption of enterprises", and directly takes "enterprise" as the target of assessment.

In this way, pressure can be released for companies that focus on small-displacement products. Products are mainly concentrated in mid-to-high-end companies. As long as the production ratio of small-displacement vehicles is planned, the overall average fuel consumption of the company can be reduced. In the case of hybrids, pure electric vehicles and other technologies that are becoming mature and the relevant models are officially put into production, they can further reduce the pressure on companies in this area. Some people in the industry also worry that for those companies with tight funding and lack of new energy technologies, the traditional car's energy-saving technology research and development can not keep pace with the industry's development cycle, the fuel consumption limit standards are increasingly stringent, and bring about Pressure can be imagined.

The poll results showed that 53% of people believe that the implementation of the new standard has little pressure on the automotive industry as a whole. In contrast, 31% of people are pessimistic about this and believe that the excessively large reduction in the limit will cause the auto industry to suffer from overall pressure and affect overall healthy development. In addition, 16% of the people did not make a clear judgment.

From the perspective of the New Deal and the feedback from the offline investigation, the concerns of the industry are mainly concentrated on the fuel technology of autonomous vehicle companies. Most people involved in the survey believe that the overall impact of autonomous car companies should be "benefit outweighs the disadvantages" and the voting rate accounts for 50%. At the same time, those who believe that “there are more harm than good” and “pros and cons are equivalent” also accounted for 25% and 11% of the total number of voters. Another 14% of the respondents said they were "nothing to say". The data in this group shows that the industry is cautious about the impact of the implementation of the new standard on autonomous car companies.

Compared with joint ventures, autonomous vehicle companies are relatively lacking in engine fuel technology, and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers of some small-displacement vehicles is even comparable to the higher-emission vehicles of joint ventures. There are pessimists who worry that the new standard will allow some of the funds to be invested. It is unsustainable for the autonomous car companies, which are relatively weak in technology, to survive. Optimists, on the other hand, said that this is conducive to forcing auto makers to increase their investment in fuel technology and new energy, and accelerate the restructuring of the industry.

According to the data, the fuel consumption figures of the 409 models of the first batch of 34 companies announced by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2006 all reached the limit value standards. In the second batch of fuel consumption of passenger vehicles announced in 2007, 55 were involved in the entire fuel consumption. There are a total of 444 non-compliance models among car companies, among which Shanghai Volkswagen, Shanghai General Motors and other joint ventures are among them, including more than ten major auto makers such as FAW, Chang'an, Futian and Chery. From this point of view, there is no pressure on the auto makers to reduce fuel consumption. Although the models involved have basically stopped production, they also reflect the predicament faced by auto makers to a certain extent.

The latest batch, that is, the third batch of passenger car fuel consumption was formally announced in March of last year, and the number of vehicles that did not meet the standard was still more than 400. According to the published company name and specific models, in this batch, the first-line independent car companies such as Chery, Geely, and BYD have been hard to find on the list, but ZTE, Great Wall, Jianghuai and other enterprises are still announced again. The standard vehicles are mainly relatively high energy consumption products such as light buses, SUVs, and MPVs. In particular, independent companies like the Great Wall, which mainly use SUVs as their main products, are generally under pressure to save energy and reduce consumption. In the third batch of revocation lists, nearly 30 models of the Great Wall have been ordered to withdraw from the market.

However, on the whole, self-owned brand models still have an advantage in the small-displacement automotive sector. According to the results of the evaluation of energy conservation of automotive products first announced in Beijing last year by the China Automobile Association and China National Automobile Research Institute, among the 1298 models declared by 38 vehicle manufacturers, the self-owned brand models have achieved a very large breakthrough in energy conservation and emission reduction. Among them, the performance of small-displacement vehicles is particularly prominent, and the energy-saving effects of various models of Chery, BYD and other car companies are at the forefront. In addition, most of the autonomous car companies are currently launching new energy vehicle projects. Once they enter the mass production phase, they will also greatly ease the pressure of energy saving and consumption reduction brought about by the fuel consumption limit standards.

Although the "Limited Limit" refers directly to large displacement and high fuel consumption models, the industry does not believe that the introduction of the new standard will bring a big impact on the rising domestic luxury car market. Up to 68% of the people support this view.

The luxury car manufacturer’s own technical reserves are relatively strong. Because China’s previous standard on fuel consumption limits was too low, most companies did not introduce their most advanced fuel technology to China. Once China’s relevant standards have gradually reached the international level, they can These luxury car companies are encouraged to bring their advanced engine energy-saving and emission reduction technologies to China to meet the requirements of the standards, especially the introduction of hybrid and new energy technologies.

As one of the drafters of the “Limit” and the deputy chief engineer of the Institute for Standardization of the China Steam Research Center, Jin Yufu, said in an earlier interview that reducing fuel consumption is a comprehensive indicator of the automobile and the improvement of engine efficiency. There is a strong correlation between the optimization of automobile emissions and the design of automotive structures and the use of lightweight materials, which can lead to the optimization and upgrading of the entire automotive industry chain.