FRP/GRP Pipe,Carbon Steel Pipe for Water Pipe,Corrosion-resistant FRP Sand Pipe,Lightweight Fiberglass Sand Pipe Hebei aoliande Chemical Equipment Co., Ltd , https://www.aoliandechemical.com
First, the "danger" performance (a) the decline in energy demand 1. Power demand fell. From January to November this year, the country’s entire society used 3153.1 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 6.67% year-on-year. The single month electricity consumption in October decreased 3.7% year-on-year, which was the first month of electricity consumption in a single month since 1999, while the electricity consumption in single month in November decreased by 8.6% year-on-year. The international financial crisis and the economic situation affect the domestic economy. The negative effects are fully manifested.
2. Demand for oil declined. In the second half of this year, the financial crisis has intensified, leading to a drop in oil demand and the rapid increase in crude oil inventories in OECD countries. At the end of October 2008, its inventory was sufficient to maintain the demand for 56.8 days, far higher than the average of 4 years. The severe global economic downturn has led to a significant drop in global crude oil demand. As a result, oil prices have been subjected to unprecedented downward pressure. Currently, the amount of crude oil entering the market is still far exceeding the actual demand. According to the new production reduction agreement reached by OPEC on December 17, the organization will cut 2.2 million barrels per day. The demand for refined oil in the domestic market has also dropped significantly. Refined oil has turned from insufficient supply in the first half of the year to more than enough supplies, and some areas have experienced pressure storage.
3. Coal demand fell. In the first three quarters of 2008, China’s cumulative coal consumption amounted to 2.028 billion tons, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year, and 3.7 percentage points lower than the previous year. It is estimated that annual consumption will be about 2.74 billion tons, an increase of 4.5%, and the increase rate will fall by 5 from the previous year. percentage point. In October, a change in the coal supply situation this summer led to a national coal social inventory of 178 million tons, up 29.9% from July; at the beginning of December, the country’s coal social inventories reached 184 million tons, while the five major power generation groups’ inventory coal reached 50 million tons. Above, the highest level in history, the number of coal-fired power stations is also close to a month.
(II) Downgrading of oil and coal prices 1. Oil prices. As the economic recession led to a continuous decline in energy demand, on December 29th, New York WTI crude oil futures reported US$40.02 per barrel. Since setting a record high of 147.27 U.S. dollars per barrel on July 11, international oil prices have fallen by 72.8%.
2. Coal prices. Since July, international coal prices have been declining. The BJ index representing the spot price of thermal coal in the Asia Pacific region quickly fell after setting a record high of US$190.95 on July 3. On November 6th, the BJ index price was US$102.55, and the price dropped by nearly US$100 within four months. The domestic coal price is affected by the unfavorable factors such as the continuous weakening of demand, and the downward trend continues to accelerate. On November 24th, Qinhuangdao Port's Datong excellent mix price of 6,000 kcal/kg was 680-700 yuan/ton, which was 22% lower than the price two weeks ago; Shanxi, which had a calorific value of 5,500 kcal/kg. The price of premium and liquidation fell even more.
3. Coal chemical and petrochemical product prices. Since the large-scale steel production and production cuts that occurred since September, they have rapidly transmitted and directly affected the coke industry. The sales price of coke has dropped by around RMB 1,000/t in August. The prices of domestic petroleum and chemical products continued to decline in a large area, with 138 kinds of 168 products tracked by the petrochemical association falling in October, accounting for 82.1%. Taking methanol as an example, the price fell below 2,400 yuan/ton in mid-October and fell to around 2,000 yuan/ton at the end of October. Production companies are basically at a loss.
(III) Difficulties in the operation of energy companies 1. The decrease in electricity demand due to the economic downturn of power generation companies, coupled with the rapid growth of domestic power generation capacity, has led to a continued decline in the utilization of power generation equipment. From January to November, the cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment in the country was 4,317 hours, which was 269 hours lower than the same period of last year. Among them, the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment is 4508 hours, which is 326 hours lower than the same period of last year. According to the State Grid Corporation of the People's Daily, the national monthly electricity generation in November decreased by 7.13% compared with the same period of last year, of which thermal power generation decreased 13.77% year-on-year. Taking Mengxi Power Grid as an example, in November, the maximum power supply load of the West Inner Mongolia Power Grid dropped to 6.9 million kilowatts, a decrease of 38.2%.
Affected by factors such as the rise in coal prices before the third quarter of this year and the decline in electricity demand caused by the financial crisis, the losses of power generation companies in the industry continued to expand. From January to October, the five largest power generation enterprise groups had a total loss of 26.8 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 28.3 billion yuan in the same period of last year.
It is more difficult for power generation companies to raise funds. With respect to direct financing, the stock market has plummeted one after another, and market confidence has been depressed. Enterprises have been severely hindered by issuing equity financing channels; due to overall losses, most power generation and listed companies have lost the qualification to publicly issue equity financing. In terms of indirect financing, bank credit ratings for loss-making power generation companies have become increasingly stringent, and financing difficulties have increased.
2. Petrochemical and petrochemical company China National Petroleum Corporation's operating income and taxes paid for the first three quarters increased by 42% and 44% year-on-year, but due to policy-related losses in the refining business, special earnings proceeds and rising raw material prices, profits were realized. A year-on-year decrease of 28%. Due to the decline in profits, the company’s cash flow showed negative growth. Recently, the domestic demand for refined oil products has decreased, sales have fallen sharply, and inventories have continued to rise. Major oil refining companies have begun to reduce their load production. The chemical product market has entered a downward cycle of the economy, prices have fallen sharply, and the products have been heavily sluggish. These have seriously affected the efficiency of the company. .
Sinopec Group's asset-liability ratio is above 60%, and its cash flow is very tight. The oil product market began to shrink, policy industry losses occurred in the refining industry, and the Qingdao refinery lost 4 billion yuan in three months. Due to price factors, smuggling activities were rampant and high-priced crude oil could not be digested, seriously affecting the company's effectiveness.
3. Coal companies Taking the coal industry chain with a relatively complete coal industry as an example, in October, the company’s main core business revenue decreased by 13.3% and 10.3%, respectively, over the second and third quarter revenue levels, and profits were lower than the average in the second and third quarters respectively. 32% and 30%.
Second, the "machine" where the impact of the international financial crisis on China's energy development is a challenge and opportunities coexist, as long as the situation is conducive to the right response, to seize the opportunities for development and adjustment in the crisis and difficulties, will be able to turn against disadvantage. The financial crisis has eased the contradiction between energy supply and demand, and the tensions between coal, electricity, oil, and transportation have been greatly relieved. This has provided an important opportunity for the energy industry to “rest and rest†and resolve some deep-seated conflicts. The slowdown has caused the decline in the prices of international energy resources and assets, which has brought favorable conditions for us to develop and utilize overseas energy resources and enhance scientific and technological strength. We must be good at taking advantage of development opportunities from the mutual transformation of international and domestic conditions, create conditions for development from the complementary advantages of international and domestic resources, and make better use of both domestic and international markets and resources, and do a good job of doing things well.
(1) Actively stimulating domestic demand and strengthening energy infrastructure In response to the financial crisis, the Party Central Committee and the State Council issued ten measures on further expanding domestic demand and promoting economic growth. Conscientiously implement the decision-making and deployment of the central government, quickly start construction of major energy projects, increase investment in the energy sector, boost confidence, and stimulate domestic demand.
The first is to expedite the approval and start of the construction of a number of energy projects that have a significant impact. The three nuclear power plants in Fuqing, Fujian, Fangjiashan, Zhejiang and Yangjiang, Guangdong, the eastern section of the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline, and the Jiangsu Puyang pumped-storage power station have been approved. On December 15th, the construction of Ningdong Coal Power Station was started. At the same time, 8 coal, power and coal chemical projects were started, including a coal mine project with a capacity of 22 million tons, a 4.4 million-kilowatt pit power station project, and a 1,335-kilometre-long Ningdong-to-D Shandong's ±660 kV DC transmission project also includes a polyoxymethylene project with the largest scale of construction in the country. The huge investment in these projects has led to large upstream and downstream industries. According to preliminary estimates, only 10 nuclear power plants with a capacity of 10 million kilowatts will involve an investment of 120 billion yuan; the trunk line of the east section of the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline will have a total length of 5,300 kilometers, with an investment of 93 billion yuan, and only 4 million tons of steel will be needed. The transformation and construction of pipelines along the route in the city can bring about a total investment of 300 billion yuan.
The second is the urgent release of the central government's financial resources in the energy sector. In the fourth quarter of this year, the central government has increased the allocation of rural power grid renovation funds by 2 billion yuan, urban power grid construction funds by 2 billion yuan, and nuclear power and wind power equipment localization support funds by 800 million yuan. The power grid funds and energy equipment funds have been issued in accordance with requirements and standards within 10 days. The rapid start-up of grid projects, the long industrial chain, and the obvious role of driving investment. At present, the price of silicon steel sheets has risen steadily, rising by 2.4%, which is the performance of investment in power transmission equipment.
The next step is to increase investment in "short-board", "debt-type", and "adjusted" energy infrastructure, and enhance the sustainable development capacity of the energy industry and the ability to guarantee economic and social development. The construction of nuclear power projects, wind power projects, and large-scale coal bases that have significant significance in optimizing energy structure and driving effects, construction of cross-regional transportation channels for coal, electricity, oil, and gas related to strategic and global security, and strategic material reserves such as oil and natural uranium Facilities construction, as well as rural power grids, urban power grids, and urban oil and gas pipelines, will increase investment.
(II) Changing the mode of development and accelerating the adjustment of energy structure At present, the growth rate of power production and consumption in China has significantly declined. The balance between supply and demand of electricity has been generally balanced. In some regions, supply exceeds demand, which is an advantageous opportunity to accelerate the structural adjustment of the energy industry.
The first is to continue to increase the power industry's "large pressure on small" efforts. China's electric power installed capacity of 100,000 kilowatts of small units still account for a large proportion, high coal consumption, emissions, heavy pollution. In order to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, it is planned to shut down small thermal power units of about 50 million kilowatts during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. Until October of this year, the small thermal power unit has shut down 32.1 million kilowatts in total, of which 3.14 million kilowatts were shut down in 2006. In 2007, it closed down 14.38 million kilowatts. In January-October 2008, it closed down 11.58 million kilowatts. After the shutdown of these small units, the required amount of electricity is generated by large units, which can save 40 million tons of raw coal annually, reduce sulfur dioxide emissions by 680,000 tons, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 65 million tons. In 2009, the company will continue to push forward with “large and small pressures,†and plans to shut down and shut down 15 million kilowatts of small thermal power units, and at the same time accelerate the construction of large-scale, efficient, and clean coal-fired units.
The second is to promote the integration of coal resources. The organizational structure of China's coal enterprises is irrational. Large mine production accounts for about 60%, and small and medium-sized mine production accounts for about 40%. In 2007, the output of raw coal was 2.54 billion tons, with 14,000 coal mines and an average production of 180,000 tons. The current balance of coal supply is basically balanced and it is beginning to develop in a loose direction. This provides an opportunity to accelerate the reorganization and integration of coal resources and increase the closure of small coal mines. Measures should be taken to solve the outstanding problems such as small, scattered, chaotic, and poor coal mines, and promote the merger and reorganization of coal enterprises. We must continue to strengthen the construction of the 13 large-scale coal bases planned by the state, speed up the approval of the overall plan for the mining area, and build modern large-scale mines, large enterprises, and large groups, and increase the degree of intensification of coal production and safe production levels.
The third is to actively accelerate the development of nuclear power. Nuclear power is a kind of clean energy, it does not produce smoke, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and other pollution, there is no large-capacity, large-distance fuel transportation. According to statistics from the International Energy Organization, in 2005, the world’s nuclear power installed capacity was 374 million kilowatts, and nuclear power installed capacity accounted for the proportion of total power generation installed capacity, with 9.66% in the world, 56.21% in France, 26.86% in Korea, 19.00% in Japan, 17.07% in Germany, and 10.45% in the United States; In 2007, China's nuclear power installed capacity accounted for only 1.27% of the total installed capacity. In 2007, the world’s nuclear power consumption was 2.73 trillion kWh, accounting for 5.61% of the total global primary energy consumption. China’s nuclear power consumption was 62.6 billion kWh, accounting for only 0.77% of primary energy consumption. The development of nuclear power is an important direction for China to adjust its energy structure. We should vigorously develop nuclear power in the coming years. To this end, it is necessary to accelerate the study and adjustment of the mid- and long-term development plans for nuclear power, strengthen the manufacturing capacity of nuclear power equipment, and formulate regulations for nuclear power management. In 2009, new nuclear power plants such as Sanmen in Zhejiang, Haiyang in Shandong, Lugu in Guangdong, and Rongcheng in Shandong should be started.
Fourth, vigorously develop renewable energy. We will formulate policies that encourage the accelerated development of wind power, accelerate the development of hydropower in southwest China, and accelerate the development of new energy sources such as solar energy. In terms of wind power development, it is estimated that 4 million kilowatts will be newly installed in 2008. The total installed capacity at the end of the year will reach 10 million kilowatts, which means that the installed capacity of wind power will exceed that of nuclear power, and China will exceed India and rank fourth in the world in terms of installed capacity of wind power; With an increase in speed over Spain, it has become the second fastest growing country after the United States. In accordance with the requirements of “incorporating large power grids and building large basesâ€, we will strive to form several tens of thousands of kilowatt-class wind power bases in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Jiangsu in more than 10 years, and strive to realize a wind power installation scale of 100 million by 2020. Kilowatts or so.
The fifth is to cultivate large energy enterprise groups. Based on the role of the market, through planning and policy support, it provides guarantees from the system and operating mechanism, guides enterprises to achieve cross-industry integration and reorganization, and encourages joint development of coal, electricity, roads, ports, and other related industries. Enhance the country's control and influence over energy.
(3) Strengthen international cooperation and expand the use of overseas energy resources Support energy companies to use overseas energy resources and open up overseas markets to safeguard China's energy and economic security.
The first is to strengthen the exchange of international energy dialogues. Actively participate in multilateral exchanges and dialogues between China and the United States, China and Russia, China and Japan, China and the European Union and other bilateral and APEC, ASEAN and China, Japan and South Korea (10+3) energy cooperation, the International Energy Forum, and make the most of the current international energy order. Chinese enterprises "going out" create a good environment for international energy cooperation.
The second is to expand cooperation and development of overseas oil and gas resources. Make full use of the favorable opportunities of the current international financial crisis, economic recession and weak energy market to increase energy cooperation with energy-producing countries and neighboring countries. Encourage and support enterprises to use their own advantages, increase cooperation with relevant countries in energy resources, expand investment in the oil and gas sector, and implement diversified global oil and gas development and utilization strategies. Take advantage of the sharp drop in international market prices to increase the import of oil and gas resources. We will pay attention to the construction of the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline and the construction of the Sino-Kazakhstan oil pipeline. We will actively promote the construction of China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline projects and improve China's energy security protection.
The third is to strengthen the strategic reserve of energy resources. The first phase of China's national oil reserve base has been basically completed. The plan for the second phase of the oil reserve base has been completed, and the storage capacity will reach 26.8 million cubic meters. It is necessary to actively promote the construction of the second phase base. Promote commercial oil reserves and encourage companies to use idle commercial capacity and increase oil reserves. We must also establish government reserves and corporate reserves for other strategic energy supplies.
(IV) Enhance independent innovation and promote progress in energy technology and equipment The international economic recession and weak energy demand have created more favourable conditions for the introduction of advanced energy technologies and equipment in China. In recent years, although there have been great advances in China's energy technologies and equipment, there are still many gaps compared with the international advanced level in many aspects. We must continue to attach great importance to the development of energy science and technology. On the one hand, we must take advantage of the current opportunities and strive to introduce more and better advanced energy technologies, equipment, and outstanding personnel at a relatively low cost, and carry out cooperation with relevant countries in such major energy technologies as clean coal utilization, renewable energy, nuclear energy, and hydrogen energy. Cooperation. On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen independent research and development of energy technologies and improve independent innovation capabilities. We will gradually establish a technological innovation system in which the enterprise is the mainstay, the market is oriented, and the combination of production, study and research is used. Increase research investment and vigorously organize the research, development and application of advanced energy technologies. Relying on the national key energy projects, it will promote technological progress in equipment manufacturing. Implement preferential policies that encourage the purchase and use of the first set of major technical equipment. It is necessary to vigorously promote flue gas desulfurization, denitrification, plasma ignition, 600,000 kilowatts of circulating fluidized bed boilers, million kilowatts of air-cooled units, UHV transmission, non-food biomass energy, biodiesel, deep-sea exploration, coal clean burning and utilization, coal seams Gas development, gas utilization and other energy technologies. To organize the implementation of two major scientific and technological special projects for large pressurized water reactors and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, large-scale oil and gas fields, and coalbed methane exploration and development.
(V) Seizing favorable opportunities and deepening the reform of the energy system mechanism As the economic growth slowed down and the prices of raw materials fell, the upward pressure on the CPI was significantly weakened. Recently, the increase in CPI fell, and the cumulative CPI for January-November increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with the CPI increase in October and November being 4.0% and 2.4% respectively. According to the estimation of the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI will be within 6% in 2008, and it will continue to decline, and inflationary pressure will be eased. This situation provides room for rationalizing the energy price formation mechanism. On December 18, the State Council issued the "Circular on the Implementation of the Reform of Refined Oil Prices and Taxes and Fees", and decided to implement the reform of refined oil taxes and charges from January 1, 2009, and to abolish the six charges levied previously on refined oil prices. Fuel consumption tax level, improve the mechanism for the formation of refined oil prices, domestic oil prices and the international market to control the indirect convergence of crude oil prices.
At present, there is a two-track system of "coal coexistence between thermal coal market price and thermal coal contract price". The downward trend of CPI and the decline in the prices of international bulk energy resources commodities also provide possibilities and space for the further improvement of the formation mechanism of the coal price market, for rationalizing the relationship between coal and electricity prices, and improving the operating conditions of the power generation industry.
The international financial crisis has spread across a wide range of areas, the depth of influence, and the speed of proliferation, which exceeds people's expectations. The financial crisis has brought severe challenges to China's energy industry and also provided rare adjustment opportunities.