At the beginning of the new year in 2014, the relevant ministries and commissions issued a number of policies aimed at promoting new energy vehicles. Recently, the State Council executive meeting announced the exemption of new energy vehicle purchase tax, and China's determination to develop new energy vehicles is further highlighted. At the same time, it also shows that the Chinese government's sense of crisis in energy consumption is also increasing.
No one would deny that new energy vehicles are the future solution for China's energy problems, but what is more pressing for automakers is how traditional energy vehicles can reduce energy consumption in the next five years. In 2012, the State Council issued the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)”, which requires that the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars in 2020 will reach 5.0L/100km. In accordance with the requirements of the "Planning", the "Capacity Consumption Limits for Passenger Cars" and the "Methods and Indicators for Evaluation of Passenger Car Fuel Consumption" initiated and organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology were publicly solicited from the public in January (the standard for new certified vehicles) The execution date is January 1, 2016; the execution date for the production vehicle is January 1, 2017).
The rigor of the fuel consumption policy is like the sword will be hung on the head. Especially since the beginning of 2014, unlike the news that the new energy vehicles attract attention, all kinds of traditional automobile energy-saving schemes and technologies are also calm and turbulent, and the industry is endless. How do you view these technologies? What is the future of energy-saving technology? According to the current industry survey of the Geshi Auto Network (the survey time from July 14 to July 20, the number of participants is 1,754), the survey has four questions. The following will be explained one by one based on the survey results and expert interviews.
The government has put forward clear quantitative standards and time nodes for the average fuel consumption of automakers. The car companies need to pay attention to how to complete the tasks as required, but how big is this task? What is the challenge for car companies to implement the fourth stage fuel limit standard? The investigation first asked questions about this. The results show that over 60% (66%) participants are not optimistic about this, for most car companies, the current fuel consumption limit is a huge challenge.
Data show that from 2006 to 2012, China's average annual fuel consumption has only decreased by 1.3%. The "Annual Report on the Implementation of Average Fuel Consumption of Enterprises in 2013" released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has further worried the industry. The report on the integration of data submitted by 104 companies shows that among the 79 domestic passenger vehicle companies, 22 The family did not meet the standard, and the compliance rate was 72%, which was 4 percentage points lower than the 76% in 2012. Among the 25 imported car companies, 12 did not meet the standard, and the compliance rate was 52%, down from 68% in 2012. 16 percentage points. On the whole, compared with 2012, the average fuel consumption rate of the passenger vehicle market in 2013 did not rise and fall.
It is not surprising that such a result is present. In the current domestic market, SUVs and medium and large-sized vehicles are still one of the most popular models. Interviews with car owners under the Gasgoline network show that most people, when economic conditions permit, They will choose models with more powerful and more powerful power, and these vehicles are generally more fuel-efficient models. According to the imported car data released by the China Automobile Association, in 2013, a total of 1,159,600 passenger cars were imported, accounting for 97.01% of the total automobile imports. Among the three categories of imported passenger vehicles, the number of off-road vehicles with higher fuel consumption was 505,300 units, an increase of 10.73% year-on-year. The popularity of domestic consumers on large-displacement vehicles can be seen. The market demand determines the product launch of the car enterprises. In order to seize a larger market space, the car companies will cater to consumers and sell large-displacement models, especially the luxury car brands that set the social elite as the target audience. Generally high. For the above consumer groups, the cost of fuel and other vehicles will not become a hindrance to the purchase of cars. Space, performance, comfort and so on are the decisive factors. Therefore, it is more difficult for such vehicles to reach the fuel consumption limit in a short period of time. Big.
The dispute over the technical route of the Chinese auto market has been discussed for a long time. Where should the focus of the auto company's energy conservation be placed? Survey 3 shows that the recognition rate of new energy vehicles is still the highest, accounting for 37%. After all, the national policy level is still vigorously promoting new energy vehicles, and the new energy industry is tilted in various aspects such as taxation system, car subsidy and infrastructure construction. In the long run, once the technology is mature and large-scale sales are realized in the private market, the production of new energy vehicles will become an effective way to reduce the average fuel consumption of the vehicle enterprises.
However, new energy vehicles need to be supported by multiple preconditions to achieve market-breaking. Before the barriers to core technologies, cruising range, safety performance and infrastructure are broken, it is difficult to expect new energy vehicles to achieve large-scale Promotion. Zhao Fuquan, dean of the Automotive Industry Technology Strategy Research Institute of Tsinghua University, believes that although the development of China's new energy automobile industry is remarkable, it will take a long process to reach the market on a large scale. "At least 15 years later, electric vehicles will be seen as 10%. Market share."
In addition, the production of small cars has achieved a 16% support rate. Small cars are generally low-displacement models, and the introduction of more small cars will undoubtedly help car companies to lower average fuel consumption. However, in the current domestic consumption environment, large-scale development of small cars is still subject to many factors. First of all, the restrictions on purchases that have been implemented by many local governments and the expectation of larger purchases across the country are a big shock for small car sales. In the face of hard-selling or large-priced license plates, more consumers will tend to step. Buy high-end models in place. Moreover, the country lacks subsidies and tax cuts for small cars, and automakers lack the incentive to develop and promote small cars because of the relatively low profit margins of selling small cars.
13% of the participants chose to produce more diesel vehicles. The energy efficiency of diesel is much higher than that of gasoline vehicles (about 15% or more), so diesel vehicles are relatively more fuel efficient than gasoline vehicles, but there are many diesel vehicles. Problems such as high noise, serious pollution, and poor high-speed performance.
Therefore, before the conditions are ripe, upgrading the traditional gasoline engine technology is still a realistic choice. As mentioned above, the traditional technology still has a huge room for improvement. For a long period of time, the improvement of traditional power technology is still the main route. 28% of participants support this view.