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The State decided to impose a 135% provisional export tariff on diammonium until September 30, 2008, which made it extremely unlikely that diammonium exports in the near future would be far-reaching for both domestic and international markets. influences.
1, in the country, will lead to excess capacity of diammonium enterprises, operating difficulties.
At present, domestic diammonium production capacity has reached 10 million tons, and about 9 million tons have been built, while domestic total demand for diammonium is only 600-650 tons. In recent years, due to the strengthening of the substitution effect of compound fertilizer, the amount of diammonium has been declining year by year, and the sharp increase in prices has also led farmers to reduce their use. In 2007, the amount of diammonium used was only about 5.6 million tons, which was a drop of more than 10%. In this way, domestic diammonium production capacity will be 3.5-4.0 million tons more.
As the sulfur that affects the cost of diammonium, the port price has reached 6,000 yuan / ton, the international market price has reached 700-750 US dollars / ton, which will make the production and operation of diammonium enterprises are struggling, according to the current price of sulfur, production of a ton of two Ammonium costs 4600-4800 yuan / ton, and the current maximum factory price of diammonium is only 4100 yuan / ton, one ton to produce a loss of six or seven hundred. Moreover, even if the government does not limit prices, due to a serious surplus of production capacity, supply exceeds demand, will inevitably lead to competition among enterprises to lower prices, vicious competition, price rises are difficult.
2. In foreign countries, international diammonium prices will be further increased.
With the continuous rise of international oil prices (which reached US$127/barrel on May 16), the development of alternative energy sources has been very rapid. In recent years, the United States, Brazil and other countries have used corn and sugarcane as raw materials to produce ethanol, resulting in corn and The planting area of ​​sugarcane increased by a large margin, resulting in a corresponding reduction in the area planted for other foods, which led to a decline in world grain inventories and an increase in prices. The rise in grain prices in turn increased the enthusiasm for grain production in various countries. On the other hand, the world's largest diammonium producing and exporting country - the United States, due to the near depletion of phosphate resources and taking into account its own limited protection of phosphate rock resources, shutting down a large amount of diammonium production capacity and drastically reducing diammonium production, leading to the international market diammonium The supply is even more intense. It is under the combined effect of these factors that the diammonium FOB price in the international market has soared to 1200 U.S. dollars per ton from 256 U.S. dollars per ton at the beginning of last year.
In the past two years, the domestic new diammonium capacity has exceeded 4 million tons, which has become a new growth point for international phosphate fertilizer production. This has greatly eased the contradiction between supply and demand of diammonium in the international market. China also imported diammonium three years ago from 5 years ago. With four million tons, it turned into a net exporter of diammonium. The timely release of production capacity has greatly eased the tension situation of international diammonium. Once the export of diammonium in China is blocked, the international diammonium price will further increase.
3. To curb the continued rise in the international price of sulphur and strive for international discourse rights.
After China imposed a high tariff of 135% on the exports of diammonium and various phosphorus-containing chemical fertilizers, it actually prohibited the export of these products in disguised form. At present, the cost of diammonium 4600-4800 yuan/ton, plus 135% After tariffs and related expenses, the FOB price of diammonium export must reach US$ 1,600/ton, so that companies can make profits. In the short term, the international diammonium price is unlikely to increase by another 400 US dollars. Even if the diammonium FOB price rises to 1,600 U.S. dollars in the future, domestic diammonium starts to be exported again, and the country will certainly need to manage it, and there must be ways to manage it. At the same time, by limiting the export of chemical fertilizers and reducing the output of phosphate and compound fertilizers, the state can also reduce the amount of international sulfur purchases and reduce the excessive dependence on foreign sulfur, which will, to some extent, curb the continued soaring international sulfur prices. We have made a useful attempt to rationally use the WTO rules and strive for international discourse rights.
From this point of view, China's phosphate and compound fertilizer companies have to face the reality of reduced production, which will inevitably reduce the demand for sulfur. According to the export scale of 1.97 million tons of diammonium, 1.93 million tons of monoammonium, 1.34 million tons of phosphate (1.1355 million tons of calcium and 237,000 tons of calcium and calcium) and 6.0 million tons of compound fertilizer in 2007, the output of diammonium was reduced by 2 million tons. A 2 million tons of ammonium reduction, 1.34 million tons of phosphate reduction, and 600,000 tons of compound fertilizer will reduce the amount of sulfur used by more than 3 million tons, which is equivalent to 30% of China’s total sulfur imports. This will be a market for the international sulfur market. The impact is not small. Therefore, we expect that in the coming period, as the demand for sulfur in China decreases, soaring international sulphur prices will stabilize and do not rule out the possibility of a suitable fall.
III. Suggestions on Promoting the Development of Domestic Phosphatic and Compound Fertilizer Industry
1. It is recommended to subsidize the diammonium sold by diammonium enterprises.
As the cost of diammonium production has reached 4600-4800 yuan / ton, and the current limit of the country's diammonium is 4,100 yuan / ton, the production of a ton would have to lose 500-700 yuan. For this reason, it is recommended that the country should provide subsidies for diammonium sold to the domestic market while formulating the price limit. The subsidy standard may refer to the sulphur price in the international market, and must be quarterly or semi-annual. If the current price of sulphur in the port is 6,000 yuan/ton, if the maximum factory price of diammonium 4100 yuan/ton is continued, it is recommended that diammonium which is sold to the domestic market by diammonium enterprises be subsidized at 800 yuan per ton.
2. It is recommended to implement tariff and quota management on the export of diammonium and control the total export volume.
Since the actual output of diammonium in China is also 7.5 million tons, the domestic demand is only 600-6.5 million tons, and the excess production capacity is 3.5 to 4 million tons in terms of plant capacity, and the surplus is 100 to 1.5 million tons in terms of actual production. Moreover, while the development of China's high-density phosphorus and compound fertilizer industry has achieved good results, its international competitiveness has also been increasing. In order to make the country's large-ammonium-phosphorus plant built with huge funds, there is a period of adaptation so that it can be developed in the process of adjustment. There are indeed practical difficulties in railroad transportation to Yunhe and Guiyang. It is suggested that the total size of diammonium exports should be controlled through tariffs and quotas (eg, 800-100,000 tons of export quotas may be considered in 2009) to ensure domestic agricultural production facilities. Diammonium is needed. Every year at the beginning of the year, the state allocates the diammonium export quotas to various enterprises. The index allocation can be appropriately tilted toward the cloud and transportation companies that are in tight transportation, and the export tariffs within the quotas are subject to lower tariffs, and the additional export volume is firmly enforced at 135%. tariff. The unused export quotas for the year will be set aside and will not be carried forward for use in the following year.
3. It is recommended to introduce policies to encourage the comprehensive utilization of low-grade phosphate rock.
Compared with 30% high-grade phosphate rock, China's low-grade phosphate rock is much richer. Therefore, the state should encourage enterprises to strengthen the comprehensive utilization of low-grade phosphate rock. In terms of policies and funding, the company supports its technological breakthroughs in the selection, selection, enrichment, and comprehensive utilization of low-grade phosphate rock, and encourages enterprises to use low-grade phosphate rock. At the same time, moderately to low concentrations of phosphorus compound fertilizers are properly developed. At present, the proportion of high-concentration phosphorus compound fertilizers in China accounts for 70% of the total phosphorus fertilizers. It is not appropriate to continue to increase them because low- and medium-level phosphorus compound fertilizers contain more trace elements. The application is beneficial to the improvement of soil. In addition, with the increase of fertilizer application amount, the use of low- and moderate-content phosphorus compound fertilizers can better avoid waste. It can be seen that maintaining a certain proportion of low- and moderate-density phosphorus compound fertilizers is the need to improve soil structure and scientific fertilization, and is also a requirement for the status and characteristics of phosphate rock resources in China.
4. It is recommended to issue relevant policies to encourage diammonium enterprises to import phosphate ore.
At present, the world's annual output of phosphate rock reaches 30 million tons, and the main export destination is Africa. The import destination is mainly the Americas and Southeast Asia. Before the United States was the world’s second largest exporter of phosphate ore, it is now a phosphate ore. The largest importer, and China is currently the country with the largest output of phosphate ore. Each year, there are 4 to 5 million tons of phosphate rock mined. China's phosphate ore imports are almost zero, which has led to high-grade phosphate rock resources in China. With drastic reduction and acceleration of depletion, according to the current mining rate, over 30% of high-grade phosphate rock is estimated to be used only around 2015. Therefore, China must import phosphate rock as soon as possible, use foreign phosphate resources to develop our high concentration of phosphate and compound fertilizer industry, which has become a top priority. Therefore, it is recommended that the state arrange special organizations to unify foreign procurement in accordance with quotas required by various companies and provide support in taxation policies so that the cost of imported phosphate rock is no more than 30% higher than the domestic purchase price.