Recently, Camel shares (601311, shares it) announced that its 1 billion watt-hour battery project has been put into production, according to the plan, the company will continue to build a total of 4 billion watt-hours of power battery capacity.

The move of Camel's speed-up power battery capacity layout is a microcosm of the expansion of power battery companies, including the leading enterprises of power battery suppliers such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074, shares), Ningde Times, and Lishen. The reporter learned that in addition to market demand, policy changes are another important reason that affects corporate decision-making.

At the end of November, the “Regulations for Automotive Power Battery Industry (2017)” (Draft for Comment) (hereinafter referred to as the opinion draft) issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells has never been lower than 200 million watt-hours. "Adjust to "not less than 8 billion watt-hours" and increase it by 40 times.

The survey found that, unlike the expansion of leading enterprises, this policy adjustment has made small and medium-sized battery companies directly face survival challenges. In the case of financial pressure, many companies have slowed down their power battery capacity projects and turned to wait and see.

Policy will promote integration of the power battery industry

The power battery companies that are expanding their production significantly are not just Camel shares. According to the plan disclosed by Yiwei Lithium Energy Co., Ltd., its power battery capacity will reach 5 billion watt-hours this year and will be expanded to 9 billion watt-hours in 2017.

In addition, the Ningde era launched a 10 billion watt-hour power battery capacity project in October this year. According to the plan, Guoxuan Hi-Tech's power battery capacity will expand to 6 billion watt-hours this year, and plans to expand production to 23 billion watt-hours by 2020.

According to the "Opinion Draft", the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells is "not less than 8 billion watt-hours."

“After the implementation of the capacity requirement of 8 billion watt-hours, there are only a handful of companies that can reach the standard.” Recently, a person in charge of Tianfeng Power told reporters that some leading enterprises in the industry cannot meet this standard. Judging from the published capacity data, among the 53 domestic mainstream power battery manufacturers, only the production capacity of the Ningde era and BYD has been achieved.

For the one-time magnification of 40 times the capacity limit, more small and medium power battery companies seem to be unable to do so.

"To build 8 billion watt-hours of power battery capacity, only plant and equipment need to invest at least 2 billion yuan." A person in charge of a power battery company told reporters that the capacity of its power battery has just crossed 200 million watt-hours this year. Threshold, once the production capacity of 8 billion watts is introduced, a large number of small and medium-sized battery companies will be eliminated.

According to the above-mentioned person in charge, in the absence of clear policy, some small and medium-sized battery companies have slowed down their original capacity expansion plans and turned to wait and see.

"If the policy is implemented, many small businesses may be integrated by large enterprises." The person in charge of the above-mentioned power battery company told reporters that the company has marginalized the business of power batteries and shifted to electronic control technology. “For companies that are not up to standard and have weak financial strength, there is not much bargaining power in the face of acquisitions.”

Power battery profit is facing decline

"The production capacity standard in the "Opinion Draft" should be fully passed with the battery companies, and it is formulated after understanding the capacity planning of the leading enterprises." A person in charge of the battery company said that in his view, "the government hopes Promote the merger and elimination of the power battery industry and improve the competitive environment of the power battery industry by improving the threshold of the power battery."

The reporter learned that every 1 billion watt-hour power battery can meet the needs of 40,000 new energy vehicles. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the output of new energy vehicles in the first 11 months of this year was 427,000, a rough calculation, the demand for battery capacity is about 10.7 billion watt-hours.

However, at present, the number of enterprises involved in power battery production in China has reached 145, and the built capacity and capacity under construction far exceed the needs.

At the same time as the number is increased, the power battery is still weak in terms of energy density, production cost, product consistency, etc., the quality is uneven, and the technology research and development is not in place has become a common problem in the power battery industry.

The person in charge told the reporter that the industry competition was once chaotic because of the low entry standards for power batteries. “Everyone is working hard on capacity building, and few companies are comfortable with technology.”

According to the above-mentioned person in charge, in the context of the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, the main engine manufacturers generally demand that the price of power batteries will drop by one third next year. At present, it is difficult for power battery companies to meet the requirements of technology and cost control, and the profit of power batteries will decline next year.

The analysis believes that the "Opinion Draft" hopes to standardize industry competition and raise the threshold of corporate funds by increasing production capacity requirements. In addition to the capacity requirements, the Opinion Draft clearly states that “Enterprises should establish enterprise standards that are not lower than national or industry standards in terms of safety, consistency, and cycle life of power battery products.”

However, in some industry insiders, the technical requirements of the Opinion Draft are still general, and only the production capacity can be considered by quantitative standards.

It is understood that the current "Automobile Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" was launched in March 2015 and has been implemented for more than 20 months. In this case, the production threshold is increased by 40 times from the lower 200 million watt hours, and the rapid changes in the power battery industry are obvious.


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