Passenger car encounters the coldest year in the past 13 years

The 2017 “Interim Examination” transcript of the auto market is obviously not ideal. According to the prediction of China Automotive Industry Association at the beginning of the year, China's auto market will achieve a 5% increase in 2017. However, according to the results of the first half of the year, there is obviously no shortage of pressure to achieve this goal. In the cold car market, dealer stocks have been higher than the warning line for six consecutive months, and many companies have no choice but to resort to government measures to stimulate the market.

The start of the second half of the gunshots has already sounded, the major auto companies will adjust the strategy to open the competition? How many companies can successfully complete the annual sales target?

The publication of the "Intermediate Examination" list also objectively presents the "cold stream" of the auto industry. The National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association (hereafter referred to as "the Federation of Travel Unions") data shows that from January to June this year, the general passenger car experienced a 0.2% decline, which was the first time in 13 years.

Under the trend of the industry downturn, the competition of auto companies for the market is even more difficult. SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC General Motors, and FAW-Volkswagen have consistently ranked in the top three seats, and their industry status is inseparable. In addition to the top three positions, there has been greater market volatility, such as the overall increase in the Japanese brand is good, the independent brands have a greater differentiation, while the Korean and legal system market share is further eroded.

In the frosty market, how to survive?

Cold Strikes

According to the data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association"), as of June, China's automobile production and sales in 2017 were 13.52548 million vehicles and 13.3359 million vehicles, an increase of 4.64% and 3.81% year-on-year, and the overall increase slowed down. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars in the first half of the year were 11.482 million and 11.253 million, respectively, an increase of only 3.16% and 1.61% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.16 percentage points and 7.62 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.

Another group of data confirming the cold wave in the industry came from the Federation of Travel Unions.

According to the data of the Federation of Travel Unions, the sales of general passenger vehicles from January to June this year were 10.8 million, which was a year-on-year decline of 0.2%. This is the first time since China’s passenger car market sales in 2005 have fallen for the first time in 13 years. “The situation of the passenger car market in the first half of the year can be said to be the worst since the turn of the century.” Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of CUCSR, bluntly stated that the growth rate of the passenger car market in previous years was generally above the GDP growth rate and higher than the overall The auto market has grown, but this year has fallen below, which exceeds the industry's previous expectations.

Specifically, except for the year-on-year increase in SUV production and sales volume in the first half of 2017, both the sedan and MPV performed poorly. According to the data, production and sales of cars decreased by 1.8% and 3.2%, respectively. Production and sales of MPV decreased by 12.8% and 15.8%, respectively, while production and sales of SUV increased by 18.9% and 16.8%, respectively.

However, Xu Haidong, assistant secretary-general of the China Automobile Industry Association, said that sales at the end of last year had been gradually digested in the first half of this year, and the auto market will resume normal normal consumption in the second half of the year. “Preferential policies for the purchase tax for passenger cars of 1.6L and below will end by the end of the year. By then, policy incentives may generate new consumer demand.” For the annual production and sales growth target of 5%, the CAAC said that it would not proceed. Adjustment.

Matthew effect

Under the cold wave, the Matthew effect of the auto industry is further manifested.

Although the rate of increase has slowed down to varying degrees, the top three SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC General Motors, and FAW-Volkswagen continue to firmly occupy the status of the first group of domestic automobile companies.

Due to the large number of bases, SAIC Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC General Motors and other companies have shown signs of weakness in the cold market. For example, SAIC Volkswagen achieved sales of 970,000 vehicles in the first half of this year, which is basically the same as last year. Compared with the previous double-digit growth rate, this was a gradual slowdown again after the 0.25% increase in sales in the first half of 2015 and the slight increase of 2.88% in the first half of 2016.

Unlike the stable market performance of the top three, the survival of some niche brands has become increasingly difficult. For example, Changan Peugeot Citroen sold only 3,133 vehicles in the first half of the year, compared to 20,000 units of annual sales targets, and the completion rate was only 15.7%. Dongfeng Yulon also did not sell more than 10,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, and the target completion rate was less than 20%.

While the other part of the Korean system, which has encountered difficulties, has a legal brand and sales continue to experience “Waterloo”.

Data show that from January to June, sales of Shenlong Motors amounted to 147,800 vehicles, a year-on-year drop of 48%. Comparing with its production and sales targets of 700,000 units, its target achievement rate in the first half of the year was only 21%. The problem of Shenlong has already appeared as early as last year. In 2016, Shenlong sold 602,000 units in total during the year, a year-on-year decrease of 14.77%.

“In the first five months of this year, the sales of passenger cars (terminals) were negatively increased by 4%, which was not seen in more than a decade. Under the premise of overall negative growth, there was a Matthew effect. Some brands were very good, and some brands were very uncomfortable. "Dongfeng Peugeot general manager Li Haigang said that the auto market is experiencing a rare cold in more than a decade, but also admitted that the Dongfeng Peugeot has been affected by the general trend of the industry.

Turbulent times

However, in such “disorderly times”, there are also some companies that have achieved a contrarian growth. The more obvious are the Japanese brands and some of the independent brands.

Lost market share of Korean and legal systems was snatched by independent brands and Japanese brands. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in the first half of 2017, the sales of Chinese brands, German, Japanese, American, Korean and French passenger cars were 4.939 million, 2.275 million, 1.89 million, and 1.352 million, respectively. There were 431,000 vehicles and 188,000 vehicles, which accounted for 43.9%, 20.2%, 17.7%, 12%, 3.8%, and 1.7% of the total passenger car sales. Among them, the fastest growth in the Japanese market, the passenger vehicle market share increased by 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year.

Chinese brands also achieved a 1.14 percentage point improvement. According to the data, in the first half of this year, a total of 4,939,500 Chinese brand passenger vehicles were sold, an increase of 4.33% year-on-year, accounting for 43.90% of the total passenger car sales. Although the growth momentum of self-owned brands has significantly weakened compared with the same period of last year, the status of double sales growth and market share is still worthy of recognition.

Among them, Geely increased by nearly 90% in the first half of the year, and the 550,200 sales volume also increased its market share in self-owned brands from 6.46% in the first half of last year to 11.14% in the same period of this year. At the same time, the company also increased its annual sales target by 10% to 1.1 million units.

SAIC Motor's 113% year-on-year increase was even more eye-catching. Its sales reached 237,600 units in the first half of the year. In addition, autonomous car makers such as Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Vehicle, Dongfeng Xiaokang, and Southeast Automotive also achieved good results.

Japanese car prices and their own brand of contrarian rise, and ultimately, the SUV market. For example, Dongfeng Nissan's Qijun and Hacker, FAW Toyota's RAV4, Dongfeng Honda's CR-V and XR-V. The SUV field is also where the independent brand is heavily deployed.

Fortunately, although the market was cold in the first half of 2017, sales in June have risen significantly. “The June recovery is a good sign that the auto market overdraft caused by the purchase tax policy last year is being gradually digested and it has returned to normal in June.” According to Jian Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, The end of sales in June is an important signal for the “recovery” of the auto market. In this way, regardless of the results of the first half of the year, for the automotive industry, there is clearly a greater chance in the second half.