New energy vehicle carbon quotas will start in the industry next year, or another financial subsidy

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the "New Energy Vehicle Carbon Quota Management Measures (Draft for Comment)", which has a clearer definition of the implementation of "carbon quotas" for auto companies. The NDRC document stated that the management plan is expected to be officially promulgated in 2017.

At the time of the financial subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the “carbon quota” management approach is considered to be a more powerful management measure for the automotive market.

The person in charge of BAIC New Energy said that the carbon quota policy is actually another form of financial subsidy for auto companies that are seriously investing in new energy vehicles. The new energy auto companies that are really working hard will definitely get more than before. Great benefit.

According to the People’s Daily-China Economic Weekly on September 27th, “Under the previous encouragement and subsidy policies, some of the most expensive fuel vehicle manufacturers, especially those that produce off-road vehicles and SUV models, can still disdain new energy vehicles. Once the “carbon quota” management method is officially implemented, each car company will receive a certain carbon emission quota. Once it is used up, it will either accept the fine according to the actual emissions or purchase the quota from other car companies with surplus quota. This move is much more difficult than punishing a series of policies in punishing backward technology and encouraging advanced technology," Jia Xinguang said.

It is understood that when the National Development and Reform Commission announced the "Measures for the Management of Carbon Equity for New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Comment)", it also explained the decline of the financial subsidy policy for new energy vehicles: by 2018, the financial subsidies will be in 2016. On the basis of a 20% reduction; by 2020, financial subsidies will be reduced by 40% from 2016.

After the "carbon quota" era is opened, this quota will become the lifeline of many auto manufacturers. Jia Xinguang commented on this: "This move is indeed somewhat unexpected. In the past, the relevant government departments only included enterprises with high carbon emissions such as cement and steel into the carbon allowance market. This time, the automobile industry was also included. I know Many of the friends inside the car company did not know what the 'carbon quota' and 'carbon market' were after the introduction of this document. I believe this is a sudden test for many car companies."

The opinion draft pointed out that the carbon quota for new energy vehicles, that is, the carbon dioxide emission reduction quota, is the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions compared with fuel vehicles in the use of new energy vehicles. The opinion draft also clearly stipulates that the enterprise shall calculate the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions that should be reduced according to the proportion of new energy vehicles that should be undertaken, that is, the total amount of carbon credits that new enterprises must pay for; the enterprises can produce and sell new energy vehicles. To meet the total carbon allowance requirements, it can also be purchased through the carbon emission trading market to enterprises with excess carbon allowances; in addition, the government can control some of the carbon allowances through the acquisition of certain carbon allowances or through financial funds.

Jia Xinguang said, "The US ZEV Act sets the electric vehicle's integral as a positive score, and the fuel vehicle's integral positioning negative score (different displacement models correspond to different sizes of negative points), the production of fuel vehicles will be deducted, and vice versa. New energy vehicles will earn points for car companies. The government will reward and punish car companies on a regular basis according to the points. Enterprises with insufficient points will either pay a fine or buy points from other car companies with surplus points."

It is understood that Tesla is a typical case of benefiting from the carbon credit policy: In 2013, Tesla lost $74 million a year, but earned $130 million in the carbon credit market and successfully filled the loss for the year. Jia Xinguang said: "This approach is very direct to benefit manufacturers of new energy vehicles and is more efficient than financial subsidies.

The use of 'carbon quotas' to gradually replace financial subsidies, the government has two layers of consideration, first of all to prevent some car companies from fraudulent use of fraudulent means; secondly, it is forced to auto companies, especially traditional fuel car manufacturers, have to The latest automotive technology is invested in production, otherwise the outlook is rather unfavorable.

In the past, it was the production of new energy vehicles that could directly take money from the government. Now it is not giving you money. If you do not meet the quota, you will be fined. Jia Xinguang also said that once the management method is officially implemented, new energy vehicle benchmarking companies such as Tesla will benefit a lot from their development in China.

An important factor in the carbon credit management approach is the carbon price, which is not clearly defined in the current draft opinion. If the price of carbon emissions is too low, the efforts of car manufacturers that produce traditional fuel vehicles will not be punished enough to encourage them to use the latest car technology to reduce energy consumption or simply invest in the production of new energy vehicles. There are not enough rewards; if the price is too high, there will be an impact on the stable development of new energy vehicles.

Jia Xinguang said: "At present, the country only has a carbon emission market in 7 cities. The price of Beijing's carbon emission market is the highest, but it is only about 50 yuan per ton. In addition, the price of Shenzhen is relatively high, at every ton. Between 30 and 40 yuan, the price of other cities is 10 yuan per ton. This price is seriously too low. If you follow this, the rewards and punishments for car companies will be minimal."

Jia Xinguang said that in the EU countries, the carbon price of the carbon emission market has exceeded 100 euros per ton, which is already an astronomical figure compared with the tens of yuan per ton in the Chinese market. "I think this price should be in every It is reasonable to have 300~400 yuan, which can play a reward and punishment role."

However, Jia Xinguang believes that the current low carbon price is generated under the premise of a small market transaction and a small transaction scale. "In the future, if the relevant government departments are determined to fully establish the price mechanism, especially the large After the fuel vehicles of the main fuel line are included in the carbon emission market, the trading volume will expand rapidly and the price will increase rapidly."

In response to the issue of carbon price, the person in charge of BAIC New Energy said that the current carbon price has not been specified in detail. It is still too early to talk about this issue, but he also said that for auto companies that are seriously investing in new energy vehicles, The carbon allowance policy is actually another form of financial subsidy. The new energy auto companies that are really working hard will definitely get more benefits than before.

The carbon quota management method will accelerate the competition process of the industry. On the one hand, it will leave a truly powerful enterprise, and on the other hand, it will promote the continuous improvement of enterprise technology. The person in charge said with confidence: " Pure electric vehicles are an industry that talks about scale and technology. BAIC New Energy has maintained rapid growth for many years, and scale effects are gradually taking shape."

In response to the question of how BAW will allocate new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles in the carbon credit era to adapt to the new management measures, the person in charge said: “New energy vehicles are the future trend, and BAIC Group is especially concerned with new energy vehicles. Pure electric vehicles attach great importance to it. By 2020, BAIC will realize 100% electrification of its product line."

In addition, the person in charge also said that from the standpoint of the car companies, BAIC hopes to have a policy buffer period, so that all market players have the impact of digesting policy changes; in specific details, as soon as possible, clear the allocation ratio of carbon allowances, transactions Ways and reward criteria.

For car companies that are still producing large-displacement traditional fuel vehicles and still use them as their main product line, it is impossible to achieve 100% electrification like BAIC in the short term, but it has to be included in the carbon emission market. The fact of management. Jia Xinguang’s suggestion is: “You can achieve large-scale oil-electric hybrids first, with oil-electric hybrids as the transition, and finally achieve most of the electrification.” Jia Xinguang believes that the biggest concern of car companies is carbon price. "According to some opinions on the substantial increase in carbon prices, quite a few car companies can't really survive."

An observer in the automotive industry said: "No country in the world has such a strong financial subsidy to cultivate the new energy vehicle market. However, due to the instability of the policy, the sales of new energy vehicles in China are not optimistic." According to the source, according to his observations, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Finance all want to master the new energy vehicle industry, and they are also formulating their own management methods and standards, which makes the entire new energy vehicle industry fall into Awkward.

"Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology abolished the previous list of new energy vehicle companies, and formulated a new new energy vehicle enterprise access mechanism, which raised the threshold of the industry. Only 10 companies can stay in the list. If you follow this In addition, the vibration of the whole industry is too great. In addition, outside the NDRC's carbon emissions trading market, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is also preparing to establish a trading platform for automobile fuel consumption. In the end, it is still unknown whether it is subject to the management system of any department. Most car companies are helpless."

The source believes that the transition from financial subsidies to carbon quota management involves a game between different management departments. "Regulatory standards should have a unified and stable system, which will help the industry to develop steadily and rapidly."

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