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Driven by multiple forces such as policies, energy security and environmental pressure, the development of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate. According to institutional sources, new energy vehicles will gradually be recognized by the general public as new technologies such as cruising range, safety and reliability, and manufacturing costs continue to decline. New energy auto industry related companies are expected to usher in a period of rapid development.
Since last year, as Tesla continued to be hot, the A-share new energy vehicle segment also performed well. Wind data shows that since the first trading day of 2014, the new energy automobile index closed as of March 27, with a cumulative increase of 9.88%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 6.82% over the same period.
The new energy auto sector is especially loved by fund companies. The Southern Fund, Agricultural Banking Fund, Debon Fund and SWS Fund have paid special attention to this topic. The Southern Fund believes that this sector is and will continue to be strongly supported by national policies in the future. There is great room for industry development and the prospects for future earnings growth are good. The Debon Fund proposes to pay attention to the lithium-ion battery and energy storage in the sub-sector under the new energy vehicle sector because they belong to emerging industries that start with time in the West and bring together many advantages such as new technologies and environmental protection. The country is expected to issue policies. Strong support.
Li Bengang, fund manager of domestic growth for Dacheng Fund, believes that the core of new energy vehicles is how to define the attributes of their consumer products. New energy vehicles differ greatly from other optional consumer products. First, one-time expenditures are large, and real entry thresholds need to be reduced to switch costs. Higher, so limited by the policy and manufacturer brand; Second, the energy supply limit is the strongest, there is no uniform standard. Based on a comprehensive analysis, the impact of energy and policies on the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is much higher than the experience. The path of beneficiaries of the new energy automotive industry chain is expected to follow the “transmission and distribution companies—import agents—new energy buses and some taxi manufacturers—new energy vehicle manufacturers—upstream industry chain manufacturersâ€. Evolution.
“In the context of policy support and technological advancement, 2014 will be the first year of the explosive growth of China's new energy vehicles, and related sectors may benefit, such as the new energy passenger car segment.†CCB Fund exemplifies each new energy vehicle According to the calculation of the minimum cumulative promotion volume for the 5,000 cities, the number of promotion in the two batches of promotion cities needs to reach more than 250,000 vehicles, among which the sales of new energy vehicles in the public sector is 130,000, and 50% of the neutral assumptions are sales of new energy buses. With sales of new energy buses at about 65,000 vehicles, the average annual sales volume in 2014-2015 will be around 30,000 units, which is a significant increase from sales of less than 10,000 units in 2013. The increase in subsidies for new energy vehicles will also benefit the pure electric passenger car segment.
From the perspective of the sub-industry chain, agencies believe that new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, will promote the development of automotive electrification, and the promotion of new energy vehicles will inevitably bring about growth in the motor drive system market, with automotive drive motors and control systems. High-quality companies with core technologies will benefit significantly. In addition, electric component manufacturers will benefit from the rapid development of the new energy automotive industry, while strict industry certification will build deeper moats for outstanding companies in the industry, which will be higher than those in general industrial applications. Profit rate.
CCB Fund believes that in the long run, the extensive promotion of new energy vehicles will benefit the upstream lithium resources. As the relationship between supply and demand improves, the price trend of lithium carbonate and the valuation of the overall sector will also change accordingly. This will provide better investment opportunities. At the same time, the benefit of more new energy vehicles is still to choose NdFeB permanent magnet motor as the drive motor, NdFeB plate will also benefit.