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Yang Bang, general manager of Guangxi Dongxin Jiaxin Trade Co., Ltd. is worried. The coal merchants are now competing to sell at a price. The price is lower every day. The power plant maintains a high inventory level. Now it is still pressing the price, so I dare not move. On June 4, Yang Bang bluntly stated that Fangchenggang had a coal inventory of 2.4 million tons in December 2011, but it rose to 6.32 million tons as of May 31, 2012. It has nearly tripled in five months and is still rising. The stocks of high stocks are not only Fangchenggang. After breaking through 7 million tons on May 24, coal stocks in Qinhuangdao Port reached 8.195 million tons on June 4. On June 2, the national key power generation enterprises reached more than 96 million tons of inventories, and the available days were 27 days, setting a record high. From January to April, coal production in the coal provinces of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi continued to maintain double-digit growth; in April, China imported 25.05 million tons of coal, an increase of 90.1. According to the data of the Ministry of Railways on June 2, in May, the railway supply situation was grim, and the daily average car was reduced by nearly 6,000 cars compared with the previous month. Among them, the national railway cargo delivery volume completed 342 million tons, an increase of 6.19 million tons, an increase of 1.8, and the growth rate in April was 4.82. The Ministry of Railways attributed the decline in the growth rate of cargo traffic to the general decline in demand for all-electric coal transportation. The golden decade of the coal industry has to draw at least one comma this year, and it is also possible to draw a big end. Li Chaolin, a coal expert, said that coal production capacity is already excessive, coal imports are still rushing, but the demand for downstream thermal power is weakening, and coal prices have entered a new round of rapid decline. The turning point of gold in 10 years In 2011, due to the high coal price, the thermal power plant in Guichuan, which is located in Hechuan, Guangxi, has been at a loss. Later, it was reduced by the subsidy of the Guangxi Autonomous Region government. Now Hechuan Thermal Power Plant has already made a profit. Of course, this profit is still marginal revenue, which is mainly due to the fall in coal prices. Qiu Junhai, director of the Guiguan Power Securities Department, said that the standard coal received by the company at 7,000 kcal is currently 980 yuan / ton, compared with 1190 yuan / ton in 2011, a decrease of 210 yuan / ton, thus leaving room for profit. In the past 10 years, the price of coal that has been on the rising channel has been unexpectedly encountered by an industry person in the past five months after encountering the coal price limit order of 5,500 kcal in the northern port of the National Development and Reform Commission on January 1, 2012. The gesture goes down. Wang Lifeng, general manager of Qinhuangdao Port Marine Coal Trading, believes that the main coastal power plant's coal inventory is still at a high level of 16.62 million tons, and the daily consumption is below 550,000 tons. As a result, the number of days available for coal storage in major power plants is close to 31 days. At present, the situation of the coastal domestic trade coal market is severe: insufficient demand, high inventory, and large price drop, and still in the process of lowering, the possibility of accelerating the bottoming of domestic coal prices will increase. Li Jianwei, executive vice president of Shanxi Electric Power Industry Association, admitted that after entering the third and fourth months of this year, the unit price of standard coal in Shanxi thermal power enterprises dropped by about 20 yuan, and the coal storage situation of each power plant was better than last year. In April 2012, the national coal output was 320 million tons, an increase of 6.7. Take Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi as the three major coal provinces. In April, coal production in the three places was 78.8 million tons, 95.75 million tons, and 37.64 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 10.59, 22.4, and 16.07. At present, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places are taking many measures to limit the price, but they are also facing pressure to release capacity. According to the latest data from the Shanxi Provincial Coal Department, this year Shanxi plans to complete the construction and production of 100 reorganized integrated and retained technical mines, with an additional coal production capacity of 100 million tons. A Shanxi coal industry source revealed that during the fifteenth period, the total investment in fixed assets of the coal mining and selection industry reached 225.3 billion yuan. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the total investment in fixed assets of the coal mining and selection industry reached 1,248.97 billion yuan, and the production capacity will be fully released in 2014. At that time, coal prices were under pressure. A coal trader said that the price of point-loading fees paid by coal enterprises or traders to the railway has fallen sharply everywhere. For example, Baotou was lowered from RMB 105-110/ton last year to RMB 50-60/ton. Traders are now very willing to take coal. The situation of railway freight traffic in June is getting more severe, and coal prices will be in a fast-decreasing channel cycle. The impact of imported coal on imported coal has had a strong impact on China's domestic coal market, and it is now almost at a loss. Lin Huijiang, general manager of Guangxi Wantong International Logistics Co., Ltd. told reporters that the 5,500-calorie Colombian coal price was 930 yuan/ton in November 2011, but it has now slipped to 820 yuan/ton. As the world's largest coal producer, China's coal imports increased by 11 to 182.4 million tons in 2011, surpassing Japan's 175.2 million tons of coal imports, ranking first in the world, and also becoming the net import of coal for three consecutive years since 2009. country. Coal production in Indonesia, Australia, Colombia, South Africa, the United States and other countries will hit a new high, while Europe's demand is sluggish and can only be exported to Asia in large quantities. China's demand has increased compared with last year. Coal expert Huang Teng said that the export is the most eye-catching in the United States. As the world's second largest coal producer, the arrival of the shale gas energy revolution will inevitably lead to a large export of US coal. In 2011, US coal exports exceeded 107 million tons, with a total value of nearly 16 billion US dollars, the highest value since 1991, more than double the amount exported in 2006. The impact of US coal on coal markets in other countries of the world has been demonstrated since last year. In 2011, US coal exports to South Korea increased by 81 to 10 million tons, exports to India increased by 65 to 4.5 million tons, and exports to Japan increased by 119 to 7 million tons. The aforementioned coal traders told reporters that US thermal power plant coal stocks have been Close to historical peaks, and now seeking to increase exports to the world, now in Washington, Oregon, the United States, coal companies are building new export terminals, including the largest international coal trader Bodi Energy. Colombia has also increased its international market supply and plans to increase its coal supply by 5 million tons this year. At the same time, South Africa and Russia's coal exports have further increased, and the international thermal coal market has seen an oversupply situation. Huang Teng said that the price of coal from the US 5,500 kcal to the domestic market is about 600 yuan / ton, which is more competitive than domestic coal. US coal production in 2011 was 1.1 billion tons, but this year's export volume is nearly 200 million tons. A new round of dumping of Asian coal merchants in Asia has begun. Nowadays, it is mainly the problem of the delivery cycle and the trustworthiness of the power plant. Therefore, the power plant is more demanding in terms of contract and payment method, and the amount of entering the country is not too much. Once the power plant is accustomed to using US coal, then US coal will quickly occupy the market. Tan Wei, a sales manager for a Sichuan coal merchant, said frankly.