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According to customs statistics, in the first half of 2008, the total value of China's foreign trade import and export reached US$1.23417 billion, an increase of 25.7% over the same period in 2007. Among them, exports accounted for 666.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 21.9 percent. The growth rate was 5.7 percentage points lower than the same period in 2007; imports were 567.57 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 30.6 percent. The accumulated trade surplus was 99.03 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 11.8% from the same period of 2007 and a net decrease of 13.21 billion U.S. dollars.
In June, China’s import and export value totaled US$221.71 billion, up 23.3%; its trade surplus reached 21.35 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%, and a net decrease of US$5.54 billion.
Zhao Yumin, director of the International Marketing Department of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, stated that in 2008 China’s foreign trade export situation was grim and it was quite good to maintain double-digit growth, but the 20% growth rate was indeed a sensitive tipping point. China’s foreign trade policy, especially exports The tax rebate policy will face tremendous pressure from companies to adjust.
Due to rising international raw materials and energy prices, continuous increase in labor costs and other production costs, and accelerated pace of RMB appreciation, coupled with policy pressures such as energy conservation and emission reduction, experts estimate that the export costs of Chinese enterprises rose by 20% to 30% in 2008, making international The export price advantage of traditional bulk commodities, which have a large market share, is no longer a major shock and faces the test of life and death.
According to customs statistics, the growth of traditional bulk commodity exports in the first half of 2008 showed signs of slowing. Among them, exports of clothing and accessories totaled 49.96 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 3.4%, which was 18.3% lower than the same period of 2007; footwear exports were 13.64 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 12.5%, which was 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period in 2007.
“The situation of China’s exports in the second half of the year will also depend on whether the state will make policy adjustments, such as increasing export tax rebate policies and relaxing credit policies to support export enterprises.†But Yumin Zhao said that regardless of policy choices, annual export growth remained at 15%. There is no problem around.
"Recently, the State Council's high-level research on Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Lu, and frequent visits to foreign trade companies is one of the purposes of seeking a policy balance for the economic operation in the second half of the year," said an economic expert.
However, export companies cannot rely on government policy support, they must adapt to changes in market regulation, take the initiative to eliminate backward production capacity, and carry out industrial upgrading to resist market risks. Zhao Yumin said: “In recent years, China’s foreign trade policy has emphasized the transformation of foreign trade growth methods and promoted industrial upgrading. From the long-term perspective, the current low-tech and low-value-added commodity export enterprises are faced with the pressures of survival and the risks of phase-out that are exactly the ways in which China transforms its foreign trade growth. Inevitably going through the pain."
Huai Tai Securities analyst Cui Hongxia is even more optimistic. He believes that domestic demand, including investment and consumption, is still the main force driving economic growth. The slowdown in export growth is unlikely to result in a hard landing for China's economic operation.
Since 2008, China’s foreign trade export growth rate has been maintained at a rate of more than 20% growth in other months except for some accidental factors, which fell to 6.5% in February. However, the data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that China’s foreign trade exports in June. It increased by 17% and once again fell below the sensitive threshold of 20%.