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According to the analysis, the increase in the price of chlor-alkali products is mainly due to changes in national energy policies. The high cost of a series of policy adjustments is a test for some chlor-alkali enterprises. The original competitive landscape of the chlor-alkali industry will be broken, and new competition models will emerge.
The chlor-alkali industry, as an energy-intensive industry, has a high dependence on energy and is affected by changes in the energy structure. According to relevant sources, the state’s policy adjustments to the energy supply structure have been more vigorous, and it has changed the way that it used to rely solely on administrative measures to introduce more flexible market mechanisms. Price leverage, as the most direct and sensitive adjustment method, has great impact on the chlor-alkali industry with high energy consumption. For example, the cost of electricity accounts for about 70% of the cost of caustic soda production. It is roughly estimated that if the electricity tariff rises by 0.01 yuan per kilowatt-hour, the cost per ton of calcium carbide will increase by 35 to 36 yuan, the cost per ton of PVC will increase by 52 to 54 yuan, and the cost per ton of caustic soda will increase by 23 to 24 yuan. According to the standard of differential electricity price adjustment, the increase of 0.04 yuan per kilowatt-hour is equivalent to an increase of 200 yuan per ton of PVC production cost. Coupled with the cancelled preferential electricity prices, the actual increase in production costs will be even greater. In addition to the increase in electricity prices, the increase in the prices of coal, electricity, and oil will also increase the cost of logistics links, which will have a certain impact on market competition.
For enterprises, the supply of chlor-alkali products can be adjusted through the control of the operating rate. The downstream needs involve a wide range of areas, but also have a certain degree of flexibility, but the impact of policy adjustment is "irresistible." . The upsurge of expansion that occurred in China around 2004 caused concern in the industry about overcapacity, falling prices, and lower profits. However, from 2004 to 2006, the growth rate of domestic caustic soda production was 12.8%, 17%, and 21.9%. The growth rate of PVC production was 16.5%, 32.2%, and 23.8%. The growth rate of total chlor-alkali industry profits was 67.4, respectively. %, 34.7% and 33.3%. It can be seen that low-price homogeneous competition caused by capacity expansion is not the only factor that affects the industry's profit level. From the analysis of market conditions in recent years, the fundamental cause of the profitability of the chlor-alkali industry is the change in the policy environment. As the government continues to strengthen the implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction policies such as differential electricity prices and cancellation of preferential electricity prices in various regions, energy costs directly affect the production of chlor-alkali industries. The increase in cost will shake the current domestic chlor-alkali market competition model, leading to a significant change in the overall pattern of the chlor-alkali industry.
At present, the distribution of domestic chlor-alkali production capacity is mainly based on the principle of “close to the origin of raw materials or close to the target marketâ€. Large-scale new projects in recent years are all based on the regional background of energy and mineral resources development. However, changes in national policy are in a trend of energy deflation. This may mean that the previous advantage will be weakened, especially for the current pattern of domestic price competition will cause a certain impact.
Obviously, a series of adjustments in energy policies will transform the chlor-alkali market from homogeneous competition to differentiated competition, and the competition model will tend to be more diversified. Due to the difference in the status of chlorine and alkali industries, the chlorine industry chain can increase the added value of products through the development of new chlorine products; and caustic soda can be stabilized through strategic cooperation with the downstream industries in the local area. The main sales channel. At the same time, in addition to the main local sales channels for caustic soda, companies should also pay attention to the overall layout of the domestic market and the expansion of export channels, effective support and cooperation with the main sales channels, so that caustic soda sales in a multilateral stability. Many chlor-alkali enterprises have continuously strengthened their core competitiveness in the process of optimizing the industrial chain structure, and have also completed industry consolidation.
According to industry sources, the goal of energy saving and emission reduction by optimizing the industrial structure by adjusting economic leverage such as energy price will be the key work of the government during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. Whether it is in the electricity price, sewage charges or export tax rebates, the chlor-alkali industry is of positive significance. The chlor-alkali industry will use this to upgrade the competitive model and get rid of the low-level price competition model. The advanced competition model is conducive to the development of domestic chlor-alkali products in overseas markets and the continuous and rapid advancement of the international development of China's chlor-alkali industry. If chlor-alkali enterprises can actively respond to changes in the policy environment and grasp the opportunities for development, they can become leaders in the industry.
Since the beginning of 2007, the prices of major domestic chlor-alkali products have shown a strong trend. PVC out of the downturn in 2006, prices gradually increased, the price of caustic soda has maintained its high level since 2006. At present, the price of PVC in South China's mainstream market has increased from RMB 6,400/tonne in January to RMB 7,500/tonne; the mainstream price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in East China is RMB 650 to RMB 700/tonne, and 48% of the mainstream of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda Prices range from 1050 to 1,130 yuan/ton.