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After analyzing the policies, we will analyze the heavy-duty industry in the next few years, and will no longer be a big ups and downs will become the main tone. This can be explained from the following aspects.
Policy adjustments moderation weight of Kaposi moving slightly in the past two <br> <br> analysis can be seen in the next few years of macroeconomic policy, we will enter a mild adjustment. Therefore, the heavy truck industry that is closely related to macroeconomic policies will experience a significant reduction in the volatility of the heavy truck industry as a result of policy changes.
If the adjustment of 6 deposit rates and 10 deposit reserve ratios within one year does not happen again in recent years, the heavy truck industry will not see the phenomenon of growth rate as high as 60%, or as much as 30%. .
Just as the massive investment of 4 trillion suddenly dropped, the scene of abrupt orders from the heavy truck industry will not come again.
High economic growth is no longer the heavy truck industry smoothing <br> <br> Chinese heavy truck industry will be the end of the period of rapid growth, the annual compound growth rate of more than 10% of history will not be reproduced.
The rapid growth of China's heavy-duty truck industry since 2000 is accompanied by the fact that China's economic growth has exceeded 10% year-round, as well as large-scale urbanization and the rapid growth of the secondary industry. This stage is also an era of heavy growth in the heavy truck industry. During this period, China’s heavy truck sales increased from 80,000 in 2000 to 1 million in 2010.
It can be said that the heavy truck industry sold 1 million vehicles in 2010, which has a lot of inventory, stocking, and the after-effects of economic stimulus. After two years of destocking, its sales volume fell to 630,000 vehicles. And these 630,000 vehicles contain excessive destocking factors. Therefore, 800,000 vehicles in 2013 are a reasonable sales volume for the heavy truck industry.
As we all know, the faster a car travels, any of its operating behaviors will lead to an increase in the consequences. This means that the more cars run at high speeds, the more bumpy they are and the more likely the direction changes. Since 2013, China’s economy has entered a period of steady growth, and the economic growth rate will stabilize at 7.5%, and it will no longer grow at a rate of more than 10% in previous years.
Therefore, after the economic environment is no longer growing at a high speed, the overall growth rate of the heavy truck industry will also be greatly reduced, and fluctuations in this growth rate will also produce smaller fluctuations.
How companies deal with the current policy <br> <br> mild adjustment, annual sales of no more ups and downs of the situation, how companies should correspond?
First of all, companies should study policies and should not ignore the policy on the grounds of “unpredictable sales of heavy trucksâ€. For example, after the fine-tuning of policies, the sales of heavy trucks will also be fine-tuned, but after the two orientations have been lowered, one can expect that one or two months later, the heavy-duty truck market will rise.
Second, companies must attach great importance to structural changes. The total amount is stable and does not represent the product structure, and the sales structure of each region will not change. It should be said that in the future, various local policies will be based on the actual conditions in the region. A feature of the current government is that it will decentralize many examination and approval powers. As a result, investment in different regions will have its own rhythm, and various investment, energy saving, and emission reduction policies will also be adapted to local conditions.
Therefore, companies should shift their attention from total volume to structure, that is, what specific policies exist in each region.
Training of personnel <br> <br> also like to say is that the current government, Li Keqiang, Li Yuanchao, etc. have a solid grounding in economics is not an isolated phenomenon. It can be said that the distinguishing feature of the current government from all previous governments is that a large number of government officials have degrees in economics or management. (Li Jingwen, an instructor of the author, once said at a teacher-student gathering that there are more than 20 students among more than 200 members of the Central Committee and its alternate members. The author's mentor is just one of many economists. There are many government officials with economic and managerial skills.
Being governed by many officials who understand the economy and market management not only allows the formulation of many policies to conform to the laws of economic development, but also provides a basis for policy implementation.
Therefore, current policy makers and implementers have started to use more economic management, and our auto companies should also keep pace with the times. At present, the majority of the leadership of our automotive companies is still a science and engineering background. It can be said that to keep up with the times, it is very necessary for automobile executives to systematically study economics and management.
When I visited Cummins Inc. in April this year, I learned that in the recent years, Cummins’ new employees have exceeded the technical personnel in management (including finance, law, economics, and management).
The automobile industry also has a saying: "Automotive development is a seven-point management of three-point technology." From this sentence, we can also see the importance of management talent. Therefore, it is very necessary for the current management personnel to learn more economic management knowledge and increase the proportion of economic management qualifications when recruiting newcomers.