Construction machinery industry leader ushered in the "boom" Jiancang period

The China Construction Machinery Industry Association said that starting in June 2010, the China Construction Machinery Industry Association was commissioned by the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to preside over the "12th Five-Year Plan" for the construction machinery industry, after more than one year of research, preparation, and revision. And review, officially announced before the planning day.

It is reported that the planning is based on the status quo of the industry and the development of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the major problems and constraints in the development of the industry, market demand forecast during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, development strategy and guiding ideology during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, and The development goals and prospects of the industry were elaborated and planned in seven aspects including development plan goals, development priorities and major tasks, policy recommendations, and measures.

The plan points out that in accordance with the development of structural adjustment and growth mode, it is predicted that by 2015, the sales volume of China's construction machinery industry will reach 900 billion yuan, and the average annual growth rate will be approximately 17%, of which about 26 billion US dollars will be exported. In 2015, the industry’s sales revenue and exports both more than doubled over 2010.

Outperforming stock price underestimation Since 2007, the mechanical sector has guaranteed a high growth rate every year, and this segment is also a prolific place for annual reports and mid-range reportable stocks. Since 2010, under the background of rapid growth in domestic fixed asset investment and real estate development, the construction machinery industry has experienced rapid growth, especially in the first half of last year, sales growth rate was nearly 60%, due to entering the off-season in the second half of the year, plus the previous year Affected by the low base and high base before the base, the growth rate of the industry showed a slight decline. However, overall, sales of construction machinery continued to increase 48% year-on-year, ranking first in the entire machinery industry. In the first quarter of this year, the engineering machinery segment and the chemical industry segment ranked among the top ones with the fastest growth in performance. The data shows that in January and February 2011, the cumulative sales volume of major construction machinery products, including excavators, loaders, bulldozers, and concrete machinery, was at the highest level in the same period in history, and sales exceeded market expectations. Among them, cumulative sales of excavators increased by 87% year-on-year, loaders increased by 53%, bulldozers increased by 87%, and concrete machinery growth was expected to be about 50%, while the growth rate of leading industry companies was generally higher than the average growth rate of the industry.

The corresponding performance with good performance is eye-catching performance of the stock price. In the first quarter, the sub-sector of construction machinery performed the best in the machinery and equipment sector, with a cumulative increase of 14.18%. Behind it are shipbuilding, heavy machinery, machine tools, and mechanical components. The cumulative increase in share prices was 11.72%, 8.42%, 6.23%, and 5.21%, respectively.

However, compared with the steady increase in the mechanical sector, the recent performance of engineering machinery stocks is really "not how". Liugong's short-term decline of more than 15%, Sany Heavy Industry's short-term decline is close to 10%, XGMA shares six consecutive negative "can not see signs of reversal. And after continuous decline, the construction machinery sector valuation has fallen to 15 Nearby times, Liugong's dynamic PE is even as low as 10 times.Some analysts pointed out that such a low-valued high-growth segment is even more attractive than the lower-valued banking sector.

Leading companies occupy the first place in Shantou. According to the base of the sales revenue of the construction machinery industry in 2010 of around 400 billion yuan, the sales revenue of the entire industry in 2015 should be over 800 billion yuan, and the “multiplying” sales target means that the market share of leading enterprises will have Obviously improved.

The reporter learned that Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG’s sales plan for 2015 is about 300 billion yuan; Zoomlion will exceed 100 billion in scale; the sales revenue of construction machinery enterprises such as Xiagong and Liugong is also expected to be close to or More than 100 billion in scale. This means that new entrants in the construction machinery industry have little market space.

The goal of leading enterprises to achieve “exclusive” market is mainly achieved through technological innovation. The plan is clear and the development strategy for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” industry is to promote the transformation of China’s construction machinery industry from a manufacturing country to a manufacturing powerhouse, and to initially form an R&D and manufacturing system for host products, basic technologies and functional components with international frontiers. The main products have reached the international average advanced technology level, and China's construction machinery industry has been transformed from extensive, imitation, and quantitative models to technological innovation, quality, and efficiency.

CICC also highly appraised the leading companies in the mechanical sector. They believe that the high growth of the mechanical sector results in a significant increase in the profitability of the leading companies. The net profit of the eight companies attributable to the shareholders of the listed companies increased by an average of 80.8% in the first quarter of this year. , higher than the operating income growth rate, showing an overall increase in profitability.

People in the industry believe that there will be excavators, concrete machinery, bulldozers, etc., and other cranes and other products will maintain stable growth in 2011.

Judging from the excavator industry, the market share of domestic brands will increase significantly, while the market share of foreign brands will decline. Leading companies in the domestic industry, such as Sany Heavy Industry, Xiagong Engineering, and Liugong, are considered to be beneficiaries of import substitution. Analysts believe that the excavator industry will maintain a growth rate of more than 20%, with the acceleration of the import substitution process, the domestic brand market share will further increase.

From the perspective of the concrete machinery industry, the steady increase in investment in fixed assets and the expansion of the use of commercial concrete in third and fourth-tier cities will drive demand for concrete machinery. From 2006 to 2010, the average growth rate of the concrete machinery of Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion was as high as 55.3% and 76.7% respectively. Analysts believe that with the popularization of commodity concrete, the demand for concrete machinery will maintain rapid growth in the future. . In addition, bulldozers will benefit from the construction of water conservancy investment and export growth, Shantui shares deserve attention.