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In 2006, China’s primary energy consumption increased by 8.4%, continuing to account for more than half of global energy consumption growth. The rapid growth of energy consumption in China is determined by the high growth of domestic GDP. However, due to the improvement of energy efficiency, the energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) has rapidly declined. Over the years, the growth rate of energy consumption in China has been slightly lower than the growth rate of GDP. The year 2008 is a crucial year for fulfilling the binding targets for energy conservation and emission reduction in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. It may also be the year in which the energy consumption per unit of GDP declines during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. However, due to the rapid growth of GDP, it is expected that China's energy consumption will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down.
Since 2002, domestic coal prices have been determined mainly by market forces. Although the domestic sales price of coal enterprises is slightly lower than the export price, the difference after deduction of transportation costs is not significant. In the future, domestic energy prices will follow the international market substantially. The sharp increase in coal prices will offset the negative impact of higher production costs, and the industry gross profit margin will quickly rise to around 30% or above. The boom of the coal industry will continue. The special oil proceeds will allow the gross profit margin of the oil exploration and production industry to continue to decline with the rise in oil prices, but it can maintain at more than 35% within the next year. As the increase in gross profit margin will bring about a substantial increase in the number of profits, coal will become a bright spot for investment in the energy industry.
Due to the strong demand from the downstream industries (electricity, metallurgy, chemical industry, etc.), sales revenue and product selling prices rose, the prosperity of the coal industry further increased in 2007. Southwest Securities expects that the sales revenue and product prices of the coal industry in China will continue to rise around 2008. At present, this high economic situation can still be sustained, and the growth rate of the industry's profits is expected to reach around 20-25%.
Due to concerns about excessive growth of coal production capacity and oversupply of coal, the country currently only encourages large and medium-sized coal mines to increase production capacity, and industry entry thresholds have already risen. It is expected that by 2009, the proportion of domestic top ten coal producers will increase to 30%. The increase in concentration will help stabilize coal prices and extend the boom period.
On December 18th, Southwest Securities’ energy industry analyst pointed out that the prospects for the domestic energy industry pointed out that the increase in the gross margin of the coal industry will result in a substantial increase in the number of profits. In the future, domestic energy prices will follow the international market and the industry’s boom will increase substantially. The degree will continue.