China's auto industry's "ten years itch"

Ten years of accession to the WTO did not bring technology. But without technology, it was a dead end. Before 2001, when Li Shufu was running around for an “automobile production permit” and was desperate to shout “Can you give me a chance to fail”, he might not have thought that 10 years? Not only did he not fail, he became the biggest player in China's domestic auto industry. He also took Volvo, the global auto giant, and became the focus of the global auto industry.

While BYD (002594) entered the automotive sector at least two years in the evening than Geely, and launched the first BYD car in 2005, two years later, but it is equally amazing that after just five years, BYD has become a national The top ten automotive companies in sales.

This is just a snapshot of the great changes in China's auto industry over the past 10 years.

China's accession to the WTO has ushered in an unprecedented period of great development in China's auto industry. A large number of multinational car companies have brought advanced concepts and rich experience, drove the fierce changes and competition in the auto industry, and strongly impacted the control of the planned economy. China's auto industry. In this flood, a group of local auto companies grew quickly and maturely. With the gradual prosperity of the Chinese auto market, the relatively mature joint venture has also experienced the speed revolution for the first time. In the past 10 years, the production and sales volume of joint-venture vehicle companies such as Guangzhou Honda, Tianjin FAW Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. and Shanghai General Motors Co., Ltd. have all significantly increased.

Pulling the lens to the whole country is even more amazing. Ten years after China's accession to the WTO, the Chinese auto industry has grown from an annual output of 2 million vehicles to an annual output of 18 million vehicles, and its global share has increased from 3.5% to 23.53% today. In the past 10 years, the development scale of the Chinese auto industry has increased by 8 times. China's auto industry has been ranked first in the world for production and sales for two consecutive years.

The accession to the WTO has brought about the carnival of the Chinese auto industry, which has given this long-term malaise industry a glow of growth. However, carnival is not the ultimate goal of WTO accession. The WTO's game rules are to build a new industrial structure for survival of the fittest in an open competitive environment. Behind this new pattern is the competition between enterprises and life and death.

Whose feast?

The charm of music is that it allows the dancers to fully integrate into the melody and deeply intoxicated, regardless of the dance skills, will not affect the dancers dripping feeling. However, when the carnival becomes a game, the pros and cons of the dance will determine the winning and the outgoing.

Once upon a time, Chinese enterprises saw the WTO as a sign of “wolf came.” After joining the WTO, almost all companies set their determination to “dance with the wolf.” Today, 10 years later, who is better?

With the removal of the wall of the Chinese auto market, multinational car companies have begun to enter China without barriers, and Chinese car companies have also begun to face global competition. The Chinese auto consumer groups have already extended from ordinary people who are rich. Auto products began to compete on models, speeds and prices. In order to be more competitive in terms of prices, multinational car companies have further deepened their cooperation with Chinese car companies. The Chinese auto industry soon ushered in the peak of the joint venture, and the global “6+3” auto giants all entered China.

The open competition has brought about an increase in the production and sales of automobiles. In the third year after China’s accession to the WTO, China’s auto production has reached 4.4437 million vehicles, which has doubled. The implementation of the 2 million vehicles before the accession to the WTO took eight years.

As for the breakthrough made by China's auto industry after its accession to the WTO, Xu Yulin, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Group’s passenger vehicle, believes that in the 10 years since China’s entry into the WTO, both the quality level, the technology level, the industrial scale and the R&D capability have achieved significant improvements.

However, behind the prosperity of the Chinese automotive market, the comparison of a set of data cannot but be shocked.

In 2010, GM sold more than 2 million vehicles in China, Volkswagen China sales reached 1.92 million, Hyundai-Kia sold 1.09 million, and Nissan Motor sales in China reached 1.02 million, even if Toyota recalled the pain of the recall. It also exceeds 800,000 vehicles.

In contrast, the transcripts of self-owned brand cars are pale.

In 2010, the sales of many self-owned brands did not reach expectations. In 2010, Great Wall Motor (601633) sold 397,300 vehicles, Geely Automobile sold 415,000 vehicles, Chery Automobile sold 682,000 vehicles and BYD sold 519,000 vehicles. In 2010, only 540,000 cars were exported from China.

In 2010, Dongfeng Fengshen, an independent brand of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. (600006), which was newly listed in the world’s top 500, had an annual sales volume of only 28,000 vehicles, which is still less than the one-month sales volume of Dongfeng Nissan’s joint venture brand. In the first half of 2010, BYD, Chery, FAW, Great Wall, Geely, JAC, Zhongtai, BAIC, and Huatai sold only 1.84 million passenger cars in 20 companies, including SAIC and BAIC. Tens of thousands. In addition, Chery is still in a huge loss, BYD's first-half report also showed a sharp decline in performance.

“The brand of a multinational company accounts for more than 50% of the Chinese market with 40% of its investment, involving more than 70% of its strength, and China becoming the world’s largest auto market”. Xu Yulin reluctantly said, “We do not oppose globalization. Globalization should become an opportunity for us to develop our own brands. Now the mid-to-high end of the market is occupied by multinational companies. If we do not firmly grasp the opportunities of history, the previous generation we moved Workers, our next generation is still moving.”

“Originally China hoped to use the market for technology. This is understandable, but in 10 years, we found that the market gave people, but the technology did not change.” Jia Xingguang, an experienced automotive industry analyst, pointed out when interviewed by a reporter from China Enterprise News. .

Local car companies "rattled by"

According to reports, when Chinese auto companies and foreign brands talked about cooperating, they once introduced a "grading" theory. That is because Chinese auto technology lags far behind foreign countries, so when foreign companies update their core technologies, they use the previous generation technology. For Chinese car companies to help Chinese companies improve their technology.

However, when automotive companies compete in the same market, global automotive technology has been updated synchronously, and outdated technologies have little use for automotive companies.

"Every technology is the result of many years of R&D. It is the result of a company's investment in huge amounts of money. It is also a guarantee of the competitiveness of the enterprise. Of course, people will not freely give in." Jia Xinguang said, "China's auto companies want to With technology, there are only two ways, that is, the peripheral technology is spent to buy, and the core technology is devoted to research and development."

“However, for a long time, Chinese auto companies have made a lot of money through joint ventures, and they have become accustomed to enjoying it. They have developed an inertia in the development of new technologies and even dreamed of acquiring them directly from foreign investors. "Jia Xinguang said.

It is reported that not long ago, when the new R&D center of Toyota Motor was started, a leader of a relevant department even publicly told the person in charge of Toyota, “You are so good technology.

According to relevant experts, a "reverse development" approach is popular in the automotive industry in China, which is buying an international old car platform and upgrading it based on its technology, so that China's technological level is at a high starting point and high. Level. For example, two years ago, Beiqi invested in the purchase of intellectual property rights and production lines of a Saab model is an example.

However, according to Jia Xinguang, this practice is far from being considered as ideal. "Actually, many domestic car companies are more imitations, that is, using people's technology, changing their own LOGO, they say their own brand, but when the next model, the technology is still blank."

It is reported that when Beijing Hyundai Sonata was first listed, some media sources revealed that, in fact, Sonata is "relying on large parts, installing four wheels on almost all 'imported' bodies is 'made in Beijing'".

"In the Japanese automobile industry, there is such a principle that if one dollar is used to introduce technology, it takes 10 yuan to absorb it. It is like buying a book. If you want to benefit yourself, you have to look at it and study it. It takes no time. Look, you naturally do not understand." Jia Xinguang pointed out.

"The reason why China's automotive technology lags behind is that it is not related to the supply of spare parts." Jia Xinguang said that parts and components have not been developed and the auto industry lacks a basis.

An auto expert once told such a story: At a recent BYD event, a reporter said that there was a problem with BYD's car wiper. Wang Chuanfu immediately said that I changed, wipers are replaced by Bosch. "China's car companies can't even make a good wiper. Can there be any innovation?" The expert said with apprehension.

Some analysts pointed out that the development of China's auto industry is lagging behind. Another important reason is the mismatch between talents and systems. It is reported that after China's accession to the WTO, in order to get rid of the shortage of professionals, around 2008, national automakers headed by Beiqi and Chery once introduced a group of professionals from the United States and Europe. However, the talents of these market economy countries cannot truly integrate into the core management areas of China's state-owned auto companies.

A person who once worked for Beiqi Group told the “China Enterprise News” reporter that in 2008, BAIC introduced the Chinese-American Wang Da who was responsible for the research and development of Beiqi’s own brands. However, "Beiqi's leadership is a member of the Party Committee. Many major decisions are passed on the Party Committee. However, because Wang Dabin is an American-American, he cannot participate in the Party Committee, which results in him not having the opportunity to participate in the decision." The person said, "Because of system problems, the imported talents have not been able to really exert force. This is one of the reasons why the management and research and development of local Chinese car companies has not been resolved."

It is alleged that Xu Min, a returnee from Haigui, resigned from Chery in 2006.

In addition, the lack of adjustment in the industrial structure of Chinese car companies is also one of the reasons. At the beginning of China's accession to the WTO, relevant leaders once predicted that China's auto companies will form several major groups within a few years in order to compete with international giants. However, up till now, the Chinese local car companies have still been in a state of dispersal, and car companies such as Zhongtai, Huatai, and youth cars have still not been centralized. In the United States, Germany, Japan, and other countries, the number of car companies is dominated by several major groups, and the competition clearly has an advantage.

“In foreign countries, companies with capacities of between 5 and 6 million vehicles can survive, while domestic auto companies have not reached 50-60,000 vehicles.” Jia Xinguang said, “In fact, it is not that Chinese car companies are unwilling Concentration and consolidation, China's auto industry policy has not really kept pace with the international situation, and it has been approved step by step. The pace is too slow and it is totally unsuited to the overall situation of the international automobile industry."

Foreign capital has forced independent brands to face crisis As more and more multinational car companies enter China, the winter of local car companies has already appeared ahead of schedule. "Why at the beginning of China's accession to the WTO, China's auto companies did not feel the impact? Because the national policy stipulates that joint-venture foreign companies can not control and operate at 50% each, so the 'wolf' is keeping 'sheep'. With the intensification of competition, if the country liberalizes its policy, the 'wolf' will immediately eat the 'sheep'.' Jia Xinguang said that the market is so cruel.

In January of this year, Volkswagen Group (China) announced that it will invest 10.6 billion euros in China in five years. At the same time, General Motors has also announced plans to list 20 new cars in China within two years. In addition, car companies such as Ford, Nissan and PSA Peugeot Citroen have further increased their investment in the Chinese market.

In contrast, several local car companies have made efforts in other areas, triggering a lot of speculation in the industry. In October of this year, Beijing Automotive Group broke news that it will join hands with Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics to get involved in aircraft manufacturing; there was news that Chery Automobile and Huatai Automobile have invested heavily in the coal industry.

Is it a diversified investment strategy, or can not afford the cold of the auto market to find alternatives, it is still not known. But a clear fact is that with the long drive of multinational car companies, the survival space of Chinese local car companies is being eroded little by little.

Starting in 2010, foreign brands have also started to launch “localized” automotive products to advance into the low-end line. This has left the low-end market, which has long been dominated by local car companies, "immortal." In early 2010, Shanghai GM Chevrolet New Sail was listed at a minimum price of 56.80 million yuan. Since then, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Dongfeng Nissan and other companies have launched joint ventures with their own brands. The main direction of the products is in the market segment of 100,000 yuan or less, and they have started their joint efforts with their own brands.

At the beginning of this year, some automotive experts predicted that with the gradual improvement of road transportation facilities, the Chinese auto market will show a trend of polarization in the future, that is, both low-end and high-end development. The high-end auto market has always been the area controlled by foreign giants. With the further liberalization of the Chinese market, imported high-end vehicles will increasingly flood into the country.

"Technology is people's, and parts are also people's. Now, with localized production, it can be sold cheaper," Jia Xinguang said. "If China's import tariffs are lowered, the high-end market will become the world dominated by foreign brands. From top to bottom, the days of Chinese auto companies are getting worse."

What is the way out for Chinese companies? The answers of industry experts must be strong. "In order for Chinese auto companies to develop, they must start with traditional cars, develop their own core technologies, and gradually move toward high-end technologies. In addition, there is no second way to go." The Ministry of Commerce pointed out.

However, this is not easy. "After joining the WTO for 10 years, it did not use technology. Now all the advantages are not in your hands. It is too difficult to start from scratch." Jia Xinguang said, but there is no technology or strategy. It is definitely a dead end.

Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that in addition to technology, Chinese auto companies need to cultivate global brands, but this requires advanced culture and management, the need for first-class talent and salary systems, or 20 years later, it will still fail People.