Appreciation accelerates the exchange rate into the largest hidden fear of Canton Fair

Another two-year "Canton Fair Time".

Although the smoke of the international financial crisis gradually dispersed, but whether the Canton Fair exhibitors or officials of the Ministry of Commerce, the expression on his face was still not too easy, "optimistic and cautious" mood still spread in Pazhou Complex.

Since the beginning of this year, international trade barriers and frictions have emerged in an endless stream. The pattern of new and old overseas markets is still undergoing adjustment. The level of demand for export products under the economic recovery has changed. In particular, the pressure for the appreciation of the renminbi in China has continued to increase. In the context of various unclear circumstances, the current Canton Fair appears to be "undercurrent."

In order to better interpret the significance of the "wind vane" of the 108th Canton Fair and to explore the future trend of China's foreign trade in a stable manner, this newspaper will continue to open up the "Canton Fair Extension Line" section to provide readers with professional analysis and reflection.

Yesterday, at the opening press conference held regularly at the Canton Fair, the Spokesman for the Guangzhou International Fair and Liu Jianjun, deputy director of the China Foreign Trade Center, admitted that the current series of problems encountered by Chinese foreign trade companies include the slow pace of economic recovery in Europe and the United States and the pressure for RMB appreciation. Increasingly, the cost of manufacturing companies continues to increase.

However, he also stressed that although the number of unfavorable factors has increased, the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the show remains high and they remain cautiously optimistic. It is expected that the total export turnover of the current Canton Fair will be the same as that of the previous session.

In the interview, the reporter found that whether the Ministry of Commerce officials or foreign trade companies, the RMB exchange rate has become the "can" in the hearts of the people that can not move past, in this fair, the "exchange rate" is destined to become a key word.

Exhibitors are optimistic: If you don't come to China, where can your customers go?

Yesterday, reporters randomly interviewed several exhibitors in the exhibition hall and discovered that although the old problems such as rising prices of raw materials and labor and appreciation of the renminbi remain, at least there are still relatively abundant orders, which still make it still optimistic.

The person in charge of Suzhou Hengrun Import and Export Co., Ltd. said that although the appreciation of the renminbi has weakened the competitiveness of the company, but to say the least, importers, even if they are sourcing globally, are facing similar situations. Although Bangladesh and other countries are cheaper than China, the products with a slightly higher value of added value will have obvious advantages in terms of scale production. If you don't come here, where can they go?"

The total export value of Zhejiang Huali International Development Co., Ltd. last year was about 1.3 billion yuan. Its responsible person, Gu Jianwu, said that this year's orders are very good. Although the European and American markets have continued to shrink, emerging markets, especially in Africa, have experienced significant growth. This year's growth has exceeded 50%.

Gu Jianwu believes that it is difficult for the European and American markets to recover in a short time, not only reducing their own orders, but also increasing the bad debt rate. “We even consciously avoided the European and American markets.”

An electrical exhibitor from Ningbo told reporters that “transactions will definitely be better than last year.” According to her, they have received some orders through the Internet and other channels.

Another foreign trader from Hangzhou also expressed similar views. Not long ago, some countries such as the United States introduced a consumption stimulus policy, which may have a certain pulling effect.

This optimistic pre-judgment can also be confirmed by the general increase in Guangzhou hotel prices.

The reporter learned that the prices of all-star hotels in the Guangzhou area around October 15 have been increasing. Compared with the prices on weekdays, the prices of three-, four-, and five-star hotels have risen by about 2-3 times, compared with about the same period in previous years. Two percent increase. Canton Fair spokesperson Liu Jianjun said that based on the current booking rates of major hotels in Guangzhou, it is expected that the current Canton Fair will have a slight increase in the number of visitors to the conference. Liu Jianjun said that in order to ensure the steady growth of buyers, the current Canton Fair invited a total of 910,000 buyers, an increase of 5.8% over the previous session.

Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are not beneficial to China and the world at large

On the eve of the opening of the Canton Fair, the General Administration of Customs released the latest Chinese foreign trade import and export data in a timely manner.

Statistics show that in September this year, the value of China's imports and exports was 273.1 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 24.7% year-on-year, and the record of 262.29 billion U.S. dollars hit in July of this year set a new record. Of this total, exports were US$144.99 billion, up 25.1% year-on-year; imports were US$128.11 billion, up 24.1% year-on-year.

Although imports rose by 7.4% month-on-month in September and reached a record high, exports only rose by 4.1% month-on-month, causing the September surplus to fall to the lowest point in the past five months. This phenomenon has drawn the attention of industry experts. Has China's foreign trade exports reached the "inflection point"?

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that China's current overall foreign trade situation is not bad, but if there is no other good news, then from the end of the third quarter to the first quarter of next year, exports will show a clear slowing trend.

What most people in the industry are worried about is, of course, the current "currency war."

According to statistics, from the “exchange reform” in 2005 to 2009, the cumulative appreciation of the renminbi was 23.85%. Since 2009, in the impact of the global financial crisis, the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has still risen by 14.5%. Commercial Department Counselor Su Jing of the Department of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Commerce stated at a press conference held yesterday that at present, the actual profit rate of most industrial enterprises in China’s foreign trade sector is only between 2% and 5%, any change in the exchange rate will Affect the bargaining power of the company. Su Jing emphasized that changes in the exchange rate of the renminbi should take into account the actual affordability of the Chinese economy and foreign trade industries. The practice of using political factors as a starting point and forcing the renminbi to appreciate substantially in the short term is "harmful to the global market".

“At present, China is at a critical moment in accelerating the transformation of the economic development mode. If the RMB exchange rate fluctuates violently in this process, it will not only benefit China itself, but neither foreign investment in China’s investment environment nor the stability of the world market will benefit.” Su Jing said.